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Up Topic The Rybka Lounge / Computer Chess / Does the human Elo system really work for chess engines?
- By MrKris (***) Date 2021-06-07 20:05
I would say no because the engine Win/Loss ratios of 10 and 15 (** below) are compared with similar human Elo difference where the human W/L ratios are only slightly above and below 2 (* below).

Without further checking I would guess that human rating differences of about 200 to 300 would be needed to see W/L ratios as high as the engines here.
(Note excluding colors-revered-game-pairs with both draws and same-color-wins would significantly increase the below engine rating differences.)
Also perhaps worth checking further is that I think I read somewhere that the LOS (Likelyhood of Superiority) is quite dependent on wins and losses.

 
Carlsen, Magnus (2847) vs Caruana, Fabiano (2820) = +27 Elo (June 2021 FIDE)
44.5/82: +25 -14 =43  =  54.27%  [52.44% draws]
Carlsen Win/Loss Ratio = 1.79  (1.79 wins per loss*)

41: Carlsen, Magnus white: +13 -5 =23  24.5/41 = 59.76% (white wins 32%)
41: Carlsen, Magnus black: +9 -12 =20  20.0/41 = 48.78% (black wins 22%)
                                                                          from a free online DB
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Carlsen, Magnus (2847) vs Radjabov, Teimour (2765) = +82 Elo (June 2021 FIDE)
32.0/54:  +18 -8 =28 = 59.26%  [51.85% draws]
Carlsen Win/Loss Ratio = 2.25  (2.25 wins per loss*)

28: Carlsen, Magnus white: +12 -4 =12  18.0/28 = 64.29% (white wins 43%)
26: Carlsen, Magnus black:  +6 -4 =16  14.0/26 = 53.85% (black wins 23%)

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Stockfish-family (ave. 3496) vs Ko. Dragon 2 (3467) = +29 Elo (CCRL 40/15 5june2021)
118.0/212: +31 -3 =174 = 56.73%  [83.65% draws]  Ave. LOS = 96.35%
Stockfish-family Win/Loss Ratio = 10.33  (10.33 wins per loss**)

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Stockfish 210601/04 (ave. 3734) vs Ko. Dragon 2 (3651) = +83 Elo (sp-cc.de 6june20121)
1227.5/2000: +488 -33 =1479  = 61.38%  [73.95% draws]
Stockfish 210601/04 Win/Loss Ratio = 14.79  (14.79 wins per loss**)
 


(Of course on a side note all engines fail the Turning Test abysmally with their near zero black win rate.
They also strikingly fail with their high draw rate; Pohl and Nooman have been working on that but engines cannot prepare for opponents like humans can.)
Up Topic The Rybka Lounge / Computer Chess / Does the human Elo system really work for chess engines?

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