Rybka Chess Community Forum
A Convekta person says the release date for Rybka 3 is July 15. I wonder.
I missed that. Where did he say that?
OK, I see. But unofficial, so we will see.
A Vasik Rajlich person said the same.
A Vasik Rajlich person said the same.
And would you say this Vask Rajlich person is a good predictor of release dates? :-)
Well, at least he's not worse than most other software developers... ;->
He is an excellent predictor! If he says March you should feel sure that the product will be released for sure until October. :-P :-P :-P
> And would you say this Vask Rajlich person is a good predictor of release dates? :-)
Not really, but he didn't mention a year. I'm sure he does better than a random release date generator. :)
I have a good feeling about this one, I think we can trust him. July 15th is too specific to be subject to change
And why did a certain Vask Rajlich person not realease on the 4th of July, is there a reason for that?
Well, it turned out that, in the act of being observed by so many people, the date's wavefunction collapsed quite spectacularly.
> And would you say this Vask Rajlich person is a good predictor of release dates?
Since he's very systematic, I thought so :-)
> A Vasik Rajlich person said the same.
Perhaps he got confused and July 15th is the release date of the release date :)
This is definitely to be taken with a grain of salt--it is based simply on the current "target date", which is unofficial, and could simply mean the date of announcement of the official release date.
>This is definitely to be taken with a grain of salt--it is based simply on the current "target date", which is unofficial, and could simply mean the date of announcement of the official release date.
After all the grief Vas took because of the repeated delays in the release of Rybka 2.3.2a, I believe he would not publicly give July 15 as the probable release date for Rybka 3 unless he were very sure (>99%) that it will be released on that date. I predict Rybka 3 will be available to the public on July 15, 2008. Take it to the bank. :-)
its better to release a product later when its completely finished rather than too early when it hasnt been thoroughly tested because you set yourself up for failure. in the case of software however the greater population is better at discovering bugs than a small team of programmers... so its difficult to find a balance between the two. obviously from the last tournament score (rybka 13.5/14) we can see that then new program is going to be well worth the wait as vas and larry have done some extensive work. just a prediction but i think the new rybka will be just as much or more of a breakthrough as when rybka-1.0 was delivered. i keep seeing a lot of posts about the release date of rybka-3; i think we all need to be a little more patient, let vas and larry decide when it is finished and not put too much pressure on them.
>i think we all need to be a little more patient, let vas and larry decide when it is finished and not put too much pressure on them.
Saying that I believe Vas when he says Rybka 3 will probably be released on July 15 ≠ Pressure
Unless Vas said something new other than in that initial post, he never said that it will "probably" be released for July 15. All he said is that July 15 is an unofficial target date for something. He didn't say that it was for the release, nor did he say that it couldn't change, and by saying "unofficial", he directly implied that it could and is possibly even likely to change.
My comments are based on this exchange. I do not think it is a big stretch to infer from these posts that Vas thinks it is probable Rybka will be released on July 15, 2008.
By AulusAemilius Date 2008-06-13 15:00 Edited 2008-06-13 15:07 Is it worth waiting for Rybka 3? Any idea how much longer it will be before it is released?
By Fulcrum2000 Date 2008-06-13 15:18 We think, hope, estimate, it will be in July, but you never know with Vas and Rybka
By Mark Date 2008-06-13 15:21 Still, at this point you should absolutely wait for Rybka 3.
By Vasik Rajlich Date 2008-06-15 04:09 This is still unofficial, but our target date is July 15.
I think it is a big stretch to conclude that this will be the actual release date. Maybe it will be, but I would put the odds against it. It might even be difficult to conclude that there is a greater than 50% chance that Vas himself thinks it will be released on July 15. This could be the current target at which a release date can be announced. More optimistically, this could be the current target at which there will be no more work on the Rybka code, after which Convekta will test it for awhile before releasing it. In any case, even if it is when Vas hopes to have the program released to the public, the chances are this won't happen because estimates on release dates are always sooner than the actual release date, even when the estimator/programmer knows that this is the case.
Well, prior to his post on June 15, Vas had been very careful to avoid any mention of release dates, even when members of this forum tried to pin him down directly. In his June 15 post he offered this date without being directly asked. Based on his earlier caution, this makes me think that he is pretty sure of this date. Also after rereading the posts I sited, I think it would be a stretch to conclude that Vas meant July 15 to be "the current target at which a release date can be announced." At any rate, I realize I am probably in the minority in believing that Rybka 3 will be released on July 15. As Kapaun says, we will see. :-)
We will see, we will see...
Convekta says release July 15, and a vendor says to expect a 20% increase in price over 2.3.2a.
Where does Convekta say this? It's not on their web site... It seems that a Convekta representative simply saw the aforementioned tentative, unofficial "target date" mentioned by Vas.
And he didn't notice that it was just the target date for releasing the release date... :->
you got it right,i am starting to plan chrismas presents.hopefully R3 will be one of them.
Surely you speak about chrismas 2009 :-)
I was inquiring about buying the multi-processor version of 2.3.2a from chessbase, and the vendor via e-mail actually discouraged me from buying it, saying that Rybka 3 was coming out July 15 and that it would probably cost 20% more than 2.3.2a. I didn't ask about Rybka 3, this information was just volunteered. A few days ago I was in touch with Convekta by e-mail about a question I had, and this person also mentioned that Rybka 3 would be out by July 15. I have no idea if any of this information is correct--I'm just relating what was written to me.
I was inquiring about buying the multi-processor version of 2.3.2a from chessbase, and the vendor via e-mail actually discouraged me from buying it
ChessBase being a competitor, that's not surprising. :)
Actually I made a mistake--it wasn't Chess Base, it was Chess Central. The upshot of the message was simply to let me know that I might want to wait for Rybka 3 and purchase that, since its release date was only a few weeks away.
The information is correct, the 15th July is the target.
The target date is set by Convekta and Vas, so it was a date already known to Convekta before Vas mentioned it, of course :)
(a) Target date for what?
(a1) Announcement of the official target date?
(a2) Announcement of the official release date?
(a3) Release of Rybka 3 to Convekta to have a thorough bug check?
(a4) Both (a1) and (a3)?
(b) There have been many unofficial target dates, and Vas already said that this was unofficial as well. It is usually the case in software releases that unofficial target dates are before the release date.
just a target release. maybe it will be ready then, maybe not :)
Better late and good than early and bad :), I'm willing to wait another 2 months if it comes with a Winfinder.
At this time there is no "bad" Rybka, only good/better/best. The new GUI is a different story though. Time will tell on that.
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