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Poll Who will win Benjamin-Rybka match at draw and White odds for each game? (Closed)
Benjamin by 8-0 0 0%
Benjamin by 7-1 1 2%
Benjamin by 6-2 6 10%
Benjamin by 5-3 13 22%
Tie Match 4-4 6 10%
Rybka by 5-3 15 25%
Rybka by 6-2 10 17%
Rybka by 7-1 5 8%
Rybka by 8-0 3 5%
Parent - - By JhorAVi (***) Date 2007-12-17 19:38
This format is much much worse for GM Benjamin! Benjamin was so lucky last time that Rybka choose move repetitions on most games. Yes those games were objectively draw but observing the live game condition (time left, human inaccuracies, Rybkas dynamic resources) clearly proves Benjamin could have no way achieve the draw.
Parent - By lkaufman (*****) Date 2007-12-17 22:28
True, but on the other side Benjamin was not aiming for draws from the start in the pawn odds match; here that is his sole goal.
Parent - By gala.martin (**) Date 2007-12-18 13:44
Thanks for the answer. I would expect you do this anti-draw work on the latest book by Jeroen Noomen or so, and not on a standard book. I would appreciate if you could make this choice public after the match. Have a good holyday :)
Parent - - By rivaldo (***) Date 2007-12-17 23:54
so the matchresult will be the same if rybka wins four and joel draws four as if both win 4 games?
do we have a chance to see a win by benjamin under these circumstances?
Parent - - By lkaufman (*****) Date 2007-12-18 05:53
Well, since we have no reason to agree to any draw offer unless it's an obvious draw, Joel certainly could win a game or two, though I don't expect this to happen.
Parent - - By Vasik Rajlich (Silver) Date 2007-12-20 14:03
Larry,

are you actually going to distinguish between draws and Rybka losses? Or are we just 'resigning' when we can't win?

Vas
Parent - By lkaufman (*****) Date 2007-12-20 15:49
I intended to play out the games until it's clear whether Rybka drew or lost for the benefit of the spectators and to make the games make sense when played out afterwards. But if Joel offers a draw in an endgame where Rybka cannot plausibly win I would have to accept.
Parent - - By exigentsky (***) Date 2007-12-18 19:33 Edited 2007-12-18 19:51
This should be interesting! However, I'm a bit confused. If a 1/2 point will turn into 1 point, how will a win be scored? If it's the same, it would really encourage Benjamin to just play for a draw. Anyway, while the color and scoring for the match helps Benjamin, I'm glad that the games themselves will be real chess. No pawns missing, equivalent time controls, etc. Moreover, I don't think forcing a draw as White is at all easy if Black refuses and is stronger.
Parent - - By lkaufman (*****) Date 2007-12-18 20:10
Yes, that is exactly the point. We want to see whether Benjamin can make draws with White if that is his sole goal. We already know that 2600 level GMs have almost no chance to win a game from Rybka in a non-handicap game, after all in 22 tries with an extra pawn or other major advantages they only managed one win (excluding the game forfeited due to faulty contempt setting).
Parent - - By Carl Bicknell (*****) Date 2007-12-18 20:38
I'm really really surprised there is so much confusion here.

I am almost certain that Rybka will win this match.
Parent - - By turbojuice1122 (Gold) Date 2007-12-18 20:49
The problem is that it's far easier to get two draws than it is to get one win.  Thus, the high ratings are very inflated if you're trying to make match predictions based on the knowledge that one side will play for the draw.  That is one reason why Kramnik often outperforms his elo in matches against stronger opponents.
Parent - - By Carl Bicknell (*****) Date 2007-12-18 21:01
I hear what you say but I stick to my prediction.

In the DF10 - Kramnik match the score was 4-2 in Fritz's favour. That would become 2-4 under the new rules, to Kramnik.

Now factor in that Kramnik is quite a bit stronger than Benjamin, and that Rybka is quite a bit stronger than fritz and I see Rybka winning big time.
Parent - - By Harvey Williamson (*****) Date 2007-12-18 21:12
That might be a good comparison if Rybka plays Benjamin on the same hardware that Fritz played Kramnik on!?
Parent - - By Vempele (Silver) Date 2007-12-18 21:35 Edited 2007-12-18 21:39

> That might be a good comparison if Rybka plays Benjamin on the same hardware that Fritz played Kramnik on!?


I wonder if that Fritz already had the same HUGE bug that went into DF10, making it useless on anything more than a dual until recently.

On a completely unrelated note, I just corrected the Wiki page about Fritz. Apparently, Deep Fritz 11 was released last month, unbeknownst to the real world. :)
Parent - By NATIONAL12 (Gold) Date 2007-12-18 21:38
that bug on df10,really got me and i wasted a lot of computer time testing df10 on a quad.
Parent - By Carl Bicknell (*****) Date 2007-12-18 22:16
V humans I don't think the hardware will be the deciding factor - rather the knowledge the program has
Parent - - By turbojuice1122 (Gold) Date 2007-12-18 21:54
Oh, I think it's a perfectly reasonable prediction--it's just that whether that is my prediction depends on my mood lately. :-)
Parent - By NATIONAL12 (Gold) Date 2007-12-18 21:58
your beginning to sound like robert on this.
Parent - By Sesse (****) Date 2007-12-18 23:12
FWIW, I'm guessing for a narrow win (say 5-3; you don't get more narrow than that when there are no draws) for Rybka here -- with (half-)points mainly lost the same way as in the previous games, ie. Rybka goes into territory it simply hasn't been taught about yet.

/* Steinar */
Parent - - By NATIONAL12 (Gold) Date 2007-12-18 23:19
why not make a post on what we think the result will be.
Parent - By lkaufman (*****) Date 2007-12-19 03:31
That's a good idea.
Parent - - By Milton (***) Date 2007-12-19 03:21
I predict GM Benjamin will win this match by a wide margin.  I think he will be able to get at least 6 draws at these time controls with the white pieces, especially if his strategy is to draw. If Rybka wins the match, I will be amazed.

Regards,
Milton
Parent - - By lkaufman (*****) Date 2007-12-19 03:32
Then I hope we can amaze you!
Parent - By Milton (***) Date 2007-12-19 03:38
I hope so too. :-)

Milton
Parent - - By 8lrr8 (***) Date 2007-12-19 04:14
if benjamin ends up losing this match, he should slit his wrists.  both of 'em.
Parent - - By Carl Bicknell (*****) Date 2007-12-19 09:28
We should definately start bets. I want it to be remembered that I hereby predict victory for Rybka.

Bring it on.
Parent - By 8lrr8 (***) Date 2007-12-20 08:40
how much would u like to wager?
Parent - - By Milton (***) Date 2007-12-21 03:00
Hi Werewolf,

How about this for a bet:  If Rybka draws or wins the match, I will buy you a 1 year subscription to Eric Hallsworth's Selective Search computer chess magazine (or if you are already a subscriber, I will  buy you a 1 year renewal to that magazine).  If GM Benjamin wins the match, you have to buy me a 1 year nenewal to Selective Search.  What do you say?

Milton
Parent - - By turbojuice1122 (Gold) Date 2007-12-21 03:14
Is this a fair bet?  The way I see it, we should take the average of our two polls and use that to calculate odds :-)  It looks like more people are betting on Rybka, and so things would be skewed that way--the calculation could be something like 2 points for each 5-3, 3 points for each 6-2, 5 points for each 7-1, and 10 points for each 8-0.  Hmmm...better not...that's a good way to get these polls "hacked" quite quickly!
Parent - - By Milton (***) Date 2007-12-21 03:25
:-)

Milton
Parent - - By Carl Bicknell (*****) Date 2007-12-21 08:56 Edited 2007-12-21 09:16
Milton, Interesting.
I actually have a very high opinion of Eric Hallsworth and SS although I haven't had it for a couple of years mainly because the info on this forum covered most things I wanted to know for free.

The (slight) problem I have with your proposal is that after some of the acusations made by Uniacke etc I don't want to be giving money to anything is related to hiarcs.

But if Benjamin wins the match I'll send you a cheque for £20 (or book tokens it doesn't seem like drunken gambling!) - then you can do with it whatever you choose. And visa versa of course. Deal?
Parent - - By Milton (***) Date 2007-12-21 17:15
Hi Werewolf,

I'm afraid we don't have a bet.  The thing I liked about my proposition (aside from getting a free renewal of SS) is I would not have to deal with money conversion issues.  In the unlikely event I lost the bet, I could just order the magazine by credit card, have it sent to your address, and let the credit card company deal with the currency conversion.  Oh well...

Milton

--------------------------------------------------------
Milton, Interesting.
I actually have a very high opinion of Eric Hallsworth and SS although I haven't had it for a couple of years mainly because the info on this forum covered most things I wanted to know for free.

The (slight) problem I have with your proposal is that after some of the acusations made by Uniacke etc I don't want to be giving money to anything is related to hiarcs.

But if Benjamin wins the match I'll send you a cheque for £20 (or book tokens it doesn't seem like drunken gambling!) - then you can do with it whatever you choose. And visa versa of course. Deal?
Parent - - By Carl Bicknell (*****) Date 2007-12-22 15:12
you're in USA...of course. £20 is a fortune for you guys at the moment with our exchange rate!
Parent - By Milton (***) Date 2007-12-22 17:01
Quite true.  If I had any sense I would accept your bet and, after winning, keep your check for a year.  By then it will probably be worth at least $100. :-)

Seriously, I am rooting for Rybka because I think it would be a really impressive achievement if she could win with these handicaps.  I just think she's giving away too much.  Time will tell.

Regards,
Milton
Parent - By gala.martin (**) Date 2007-12-19 10:52
I voted 6-2 for rybka. Of course, it depends a lot on the GM specific preparation for this match, as well as the rybka preparation (namely, if the book was well cooked).
Parent - - By NATIONAL12 (Gold) Date 2007-12-19 23:12
larry, just an innocent question, but who is putting up the bread.
Parent - - By lkaufman (*****) Date 2007-12-19 23:34
Two computer chess enthusiasts (who wish to remain anonymous) have put up enough to cover all expenses if we win the match. If not, Vas and I will cover the extra money for Joel.
Parent - By NATIONAL12 (Gold) Date 2007-12-19 23:40
thanks for reply larry, if you get a really hard one i would be prepared to chuck in a few pounds.
Parent - - By NATIONAL12 (Gold) Date 2007-12-20 00:09 Edited 2007-12-20 00:30
i hope i understand your reply correctly, they will only pay if you win. if not you and vas will have to pay up. they seem to me to me to be on a winner to nothing. i am prepared to put up money where if you win i make a few quid and if you lose i lose and i will pay up.
Parent - - By lkaufman (*****) Date 2007-12-20 00:28
No, they put up a fixed $2,000. Vas and I only have to cover anything beyond this, which will be minimal if we win the match. If we lose 5-3, we would have to pay $500 each. I feel that if we lose the match, we deserve to lose some money too! So far in every match I have been on the hook for a fair amount of money if we lose, but so far I haven't had to pay out anything significant myself as we have won every match. 
Parent - - By BB (****) Date 2007-12-20 00:33
So far in every match I have been on the hook for a fair amount of money...I haven't had to pay out...as we have won every match.

I take it that the Zappa Mexico match is not included here.
Parent - By lkaufman (*****) Date 2007-12-20 01:22
Right, I meant every match against a human. I am not involved in arranging or financing matches with other computers, although of course I do what I can to help us win all matches.
Parent - By NATIONAL12 (Gold) Date 2007-12-20 00:41
thanks for the reply. i agree that if you lose you should have to pay something, even if it is a nominal amount.but it is nice to hear these guys cover your match costs. let me know of your next adventure i mean that word because that is what it is a great adventure.
Parent - - By turbojuice1122 (Gold) Date 2007-12-20 02:48
Hmmm...I guess I'll vote here, too (5-3 Rybka); I just now saw this one.  We should somehow have our two polls merged, but done so in a way that simply adds the two sets of votes, but doesn't count two votes for people who voted in each one.
Parent - - By lkaufman (*****) Date 2007-12-20 02:56
Apparently we made the polls at about the same time. Since more people have voted in yours, I'll remove mine after first giving those who voted here notice to do so in yours. So, everyone please do so!
Parent - - By turbojuice1122 (Gold) Date 2007-12-20 04:05
Actually, I wonder whether that's a good idea or not: if we encourage people to vote in both, we could have a good sense of the error in the poll results!  Haha, Bayes statistics from two data points :-)
Parent - - By Uly (Gold) Date 2007-12-20 15:04
On this one, nobody has voted for a 8-0 result either side, on the other one, 4 people have voted on those. I wonder that does that mean.
Parent - By turbojuice1122 (Gold) Date 2007-12-20 16:42
I don't suspect anything unusual, since the general shape is the same--I think thus far, it's just typical random error.  Also, some people don't feel like voting twice, and this one came up slightly later, I think.
Parent - - By turbojuice1122 (Gold) Date 2007-12-20 21:29
Another possible reason is that in the meantime, there has been a bit more discussion on the topic, and so some people who voted before might now have come to different conclusions.  That's another good reason to keep this poll going, too.
Parent - By lkaufman (*****) Date 2007-12-21 05:41
OK, I'll keep it then.
Up Topic Rybka Support & Discussion / Rybka Discussion / Draw Odds Match with Benjamin
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