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Up Topic Correspondence Chess / Correspondence Chess / Semi-Slav: Which stats to follow?
- - By Hamster (**) [at] Date 2013-07-03 20:19
I have arrived at an interesting position of a Semi-Slav:

1.d4 d5 2.c4 c6 3.Nc3 Nf6 4.Nf3 e6 5.e3 Nbd7 6.Qc2 Bd6 7.Bd3 O-O 8.O-O dxc4 9.Bxc4 a6 *

r1bq1rk1/1p1n1ppp/p1pbpn2/8/2BP4/2N1PN2/PPQ2PPP/R1B2RK1 w - - 0 10

I let IDeA run a bit (Houdini 3) but not a lot... so the values in the table are not that reliable.
I do get very different stats depending on which database I look at (Playchess Games 2013)
or a mix of correspondence games. Of course stats do very usually but I am surprised about
such a large divergence. In order to not follow too much theory I was tempted to play 10.a4,
until I saw Playchess statistics (red color indicates bad stats, green good stats, black ~50%).

What would be a good way to go about it in a Correspondence Chess game?!
Parent - - By turbojuice1122 (Gold) [us] Date 2013-07-04 06:18 Upvotes 1
I have about 10,000 positions stemming from this in my IDeA.  The top moves, scoring +0.15, are Rd1, Be2, and a4.  I personally would prefer a4 the most--you can't let black start eating away at your queenside.  10. e4 (scoring +0.11) is also interesting and maybe worth a try.
Parent - - By tturgut (**) [us] Date 2013-08-01 20:16
Look at game Nickel-Olofsson.  The answer of your question is there.
Parent - - By donkasand (***) [za] Date 2013-08-02 01:16
Could you share this game?
Parent - - By kgburcham (***) [us] Date 2013-08-03 02:23
[Event "MT-Keres-95 (EST)"]
[Site "ICCF"]
[Date "2011.02.01"]
[Round "?"]
[White "Arno Nickel"]
[Black "Dan Olofsson"]
[WhiteElo "2632"]
[BlackElo "2567"]
[ECO "D45"]
[Result "1-0"]

1. Nf3 d5 2. c4 c6 3. e3 Nf6 4. Nc3 e6 5. d4 Nbd7 6. Qc2
Bd6 7. Bd3 O-O 8. O-O dxc4 9. Bxc4 b5 10. Be2 a6 11. Rd1
Qc7 12. Ne4 Nxe4 13. Qxe4 Bb7 14. Bd3 g6 15. Qh4 c5 16. Ng5
Nf6 17. dxc5 Be7 18. b4 Nh5 19. Bb2 f5 20. Nxe6 Qc6 21. Qh3
Qxe6 22. Bc2 Rf7 23. Bb3 Qc8 24. e4 Kf8 25. Rac1 Bg5
26. Bxf7 Bxc1 27. Bxc1 Kxf7 28. Rd6 Qe8 29. Qb3+ Kg7
30. Bb2+ Kh6 31. f3 Qe7 32. Qe3+ f4 33. Qd2 Qh4 34. Bd4
Bxe4 35. fxe4 Re8 36. Qe2 Qg5 37. c6 1-0
Parent - - By donkasand (***) [za] Date 2013-08-03 03:43
Thank you!
Is not the move 17 mate theat better countered by h5 rather than Nf6 as per the game?
Black seems OK after that...
Parent - By Nelson Hernandez (Gold) [us] Date 2013-08-04 22:41
First off, the position after 9...a6, shown as success rate, draw percentage and ELO-adjusted success rate on my top five moves, ranked just as they are in my book:

Rd1  49.7%  50.4%  54%
Bd2  49.1     50.0     54%
a4    46.5     55.2     53%
e4    48.9     39.4     54%
Bd3  50.4     50.4     52%

Note that the ELO-adjusted rate is in all cases higher than the nominal success rate.  In other words, the black player in this positions has been usually the stronger player (this established over an enormous number of games), which is not usually a coincidence.  A stronger player is there because he wants to be there.  Which means that if you adjust white's success for the disparity in strength, white is actually doing very slightly better.

Now, what does this mean in practice?  Not a whole lot.  This is already a very drawish position and the five candidate moves I show don't have a clear favorite.  What makes Rd1 most attractive is simply that it has been played much more often, offering more time to stay in book and find a book path that might work.

As for your comment on 16...Nf6--I completely agree.

h5   56.4%   63.1%   51%
Nf6  28.7      42.5      35

Black should be able to draw easily after 16...h5.  Main line would go 17.Ne4 Bxe4 18.Bxe4 Rac8 19.Bd2 Rfe8 20.Rac1 Be7 leaving a position which is 78% drawn.
Up Topic Correspondence Chess / Correspondence Chess / Semi-Slav: Which stats to follow?

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