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- - By dragon49 (****) [us] Date 2013-03-13 18:26
Why aren't all of the top 8 players in the candidates tournament that starts tomorrow.  Anand is #6 in the world, but is the world champion.

This is the list of players, along with their world rankings:

1   Carlsen, Magnus

2   Kramnik, Vladimir

3   Aronian, Levon

4   Radjabov, Teimour

10   Grischuk, Alexander

13   Ivanchuk, Vassily

14   Svidler, Peter

18   Gelfand, Boris

Why were these folks excluded, all of them higher rated than the last 4 players?

5 - Karjakin, Sergey
7 - Topalov, Veselin
8 - Nakamura, Hikaru
9 - Mamedyarov, Shakhriyar
Parent - - By Homayoun_Sohrabi_M.D. (***) [us] Date 2013-03-14 05:49
because they don't select the 8 players just based on the world rankings.   Gelfand got automatic entry because he was the finalist last time.   I think Svidler and Grischuk got in because they came first and second in world cup or something like that.    In your list, there is only one player that matters anyways, his first name is Magnus and last name is Carlsen.
Parent - - By dragon49 (****) [us] Date 2013-03-14 11:25
I agree that Carlsen will probably win, but I think that Nakamura, as well as Kamsky could have had chances.
Parent - - By Nelson Hernandez (Silver) [us] Date 2013-03-16 12:10
I hope I'm wrong, but I am thinking there will be an upset.  Watch out for Kramnik.
Parent - - By Labyrinth (****) [us] Date 2013-03-16 14:06
Go Kramnik! I am a fan of Kramnik :-)
Parent - - By Nelson Hernandez (Silver) [us] Date 2013-03-16 21:00
Did you see round 2?  Carlsen is going to have a very hard time against people who are trying to take no risks and draw no matter what color he's playing.  Aronian simply caught Gelfand with his pants down and skunked him; it was one of those things.  Radjabov played Ivanchuk, whose opening and queenside development were thoroughly unsound, and took him apart as though he had a small electronic device announcing Houdini moves in his ear (which I am not suggesting is actually the case).  He is a great form, finding the key moves and not making any inaccuracies until he was down on time and the game was long decided.

Biggest highlight of the day for me was in the press room.  The Russian chick interviewing Radjabov was rather obviously flirting with him.  The body language and behavior gave her totally away.  Man, being a top-five chess player must be a great life.  Imagine what it would be like to be world champion and single!
Parent - - By Christian Packi (****) [de] Date 2013-03-17 01:11
Carlsen played his two biggest rivals in the first two rounds. I think he will be fine with his results. You win such a tournament by beating the weaker players and not getting caught by the strong ones, obviously he can beat them also. Kramnik mentioned in an interview that it probably takes +4 to win the event. He had two blacks already so good results for him also. I thought before the tournament Radjabov might be a hot candidate to win it. I mean the guy is no. 4 in the world with a big rating. He played very few events probably preparing heavily for the candidates. He's always a candidate to end up +2 rather than +5 in tournaments, maybe he can step it up this time though. He had a good start for sure. I also rate Svidler highly and predict a top 4 finish for him, after all he has a plus score against the field, unlike Aronian for example. With Ivanchuk it’s always the same, his nerves let him down when he needs them most, and he's too enterprising in his openings. Overall I think if one of the big four makes it we will have a worthy World Championship match.
Parent - - By Nelson Hernandez (Silver) [us] Date 2013-03-29 02:32
Round 11 completed.  I say again: watch out for Kramnik!  You have seven Soviet-trained players against Carlsen!  I don't need to repeat the Fischer theory of how they roll.
Parent - - By Nelson Hernandez (Silver) [us] Date 2013-03-29 21:57
Round 12 completed.  KRAMNIK!!!  Oh man, what a let-down.
Parent - By Christian Packi (****) [de] Date 2013-03-29 23:01
I don't want to see that match again... :sad:
Parent - By irulats (****) [ie] Date 2013-03-29 23:28

> KRAMNIK!!!


Old dog for the hard road! :smile:
Parent - By nebulus (****) [no] Date 2013-03-30 00:04
It's far from over. Kramnik has much tougher opponents, Gelfand with white and Ivanchuk with black. Gelfand game will be decisive, I think.
Parent - - By Christian Packi (****) [de] Date 2013-03-31 21:41
Oh boy what a day this will be tomorrow. Need to get my popcorn ready. :grin:
Parent - - By Nelson Hernandez (Silver) [us] Date 2013-04-01 00:18
Kramnik is in a do-or-die situation against Ivanchuk.  I hope Chucky plays solid, conventional chess.  The next world champion could be determined by what mood he is in tomorrow.
Parent - - By Ozymandias (***) [es] Date 2013-04-01 09:47
If Kramnik is as clever as the players who have defeated Chucky, so far in this tournament, he'll win. You "just" have to get him into time trouble and the Ukrainian will take care of the rest.
Parent - - By Christian Packi (****) [de] Date 2013-04-01 11:54
Honestly Ivanchuk has been a disgrace to the tournament. I would hate it if this wild card would decide the winner, especially since Carlsen didn’t profit from his erraticness, on the contrary. Statistically Carlsen's chances are 84% to go through, but that only takes ratings into account. I think it’s more like 2-1.
Parent - - By Nelson Hernandez (Silver) [us] Date 2013-04-01 13:10
I wouldn't call him a disgrace.  He may be a professional in fact but he is not a professional temperamentally.  If anything his somewhat whimsical attitude harkens back to chess players of old: he's a player, not a pro.  Was Capablanca a disgrace when he played Alekhine for the title, not taking things too seriously?  I don't think so; he was just Capablanca.  In the end Ivanchuk is what he is, and his ELO indicates that he's a chess genius.  (Anybody 2700+ is really extraordinary.)

More irritating to me is Gelfand, playing with captured pieces, thinking hard for one or two minute stretches and then seemingly daydreaming for five.  I guess all chess players do this; they are not machines.  But his way of doing it is exasperating.
Parent - - By Christian Packi (****) [de] Date 2013-04-01 13:22
This is from chessbase:

“It was a new experience for me. When he played 27…Rd7 he looked away, and after I played 28.a4 and pressed the clock, he lost about half a minute trying to figure out which move I made,” said Svidler.

This all happened with Ivanchuk having a minute on his clock. To me this is borderline mental illness.

Gelfand is actually not so strange. He always plays with pieces, he also did it against Anand. And what you describe as daydreaming is actually thinking. These guys don't need a board to play. They can see the board clearly in their minds eye where they can move the pieces around.

Anyway Kramnik is playing a solid but complicated Pirc, which will put Ivanchuk's mind at work.
Parent - By Christian Packi (****) [de] Date 2013-04-01 18:22
YES! :cool:
Parent - - By Nelson Hernandez (Silver) [us] Date 2013-04-01 18:26 Edited 2013-04-01 18:29
Who's a disgrace?  Ivanchuk--unbelievable tournament in every way.  One that will be always remembered.  Certainly the most memorable 7th place finish of all time.

Kramnik must be put on suicide watch now.  Carlsen--he will need medication after the second half of the tournament he had.  He went in with so much swagger and exited on top curled in a fetal position.  Aronian--a broken man.  Radjabov--shattered.  Svidler is the probably the guy who got through this thing with the least perturbation of his psyche.

The big winner in this tournament: Anand.
Parent - - By Christian Packi (****) [de] Date 2013-04-01 18:37
Svidler played a great tournament, behind Kramnik he was best prepared. At least we have the match we all wanted. It will be interesting if Carlsen can step up his preparation, his biggest weakness. On the other hand it also will be difficult for Anand to prepare because Carlsen plays a lot of stuff.
Parent - By irulats (****) [ie] Date 2013-04-01 19:08
It was a rare but exciting finish. Carlsen definitely cracked under pressure and took much too long over his moves. Kramnik was just unlucky to meet Ivanchuk on one of his 'brilliant days'. He really takes the biscuit. The funniest thing was after one of his games he was asked by the commentator, "Who are you playing tomorrow?" And he answered, "I don't know." When the crowd burst out laughing he seemed surprised and said, "My second will tell me!"

I'm looking forward to the big match at last. I can't help thinking that Carlsen mightened be 100% ready to take Anand down yet, but he's capable of thrashing him if he is! :smile:
Parent - - By Nelson Hernandez (Silver) [us] Date 2013-04-01 19:09
Actually I think everyone has known for some time that Carlsen's weakness was preparation.  But now we can add another: long-term mental stamina.  He really faded badly in the second half and it wasn't just pressure.  Carlsen is a mental sprinter, not a marathoner.  He can grind out a long, hard win (we saw that a couple of times) but day after day, not really.  You might say this was one of Kasparov's great strengths as witness his tremendous, almost brutal matches with Karpov.

It could also be immaturity or perhaps the constant, fawning media attention he gets, which could ruin just about anybody's patience and work ethic.  You have to wonder how he holds the women at bay, too.  They can ruin a chess player as well!

I haven't decided who I would like to root for; Anand is a first-rate gentleman while Carlsen is the boy genius.  I probably lean toward Anand, but expect Carlsen to prevail, just barely.
Parent - By Ozymandias (***) [es] Date 2013-04-02 07:22
You're spot on about the stamina issue, but a match against a guy who doubles you in age it's not the same as playing a tournament where everyone is looking to gun you down.
Parent - - By Kappatoo (****) [de] Date 2013-04-02 09:19

> But now we can add another: long-term mental stamina.  He really faded badly in the second half and it wasn't just pressure.  Carlsen is a mental sprinter, not a marathoner.  He can grind out a long, hard win (we saw that a
> couple of times) but day after day, not really.


Wow! What a bold conclusion from a sample size of 1.
By the way, how many tournaments did he win in the last rounds after a bad or mediocre start?
Parent - - By Nelson Hernandez (Silver) [us] Date 2013-04-02 11:19
This was a tournament like none he has ever played in before.  The stakes here weren't money or ephemeral recognition; they were for nothing less than a shot at chess immortality.  In crisis situations a man's character shines through and you can draw some conclusions.  Not that a person doesn't learn from his experiences and adapt, though I don't know how you could make that case for Ivanchuk, for example.  He is fully formed and this tournament revealed him in his full glory.
Parent - - By Christian Packi (****) [de] Date 2013-04-02 12:02
I'm not sure what you're saying about Ivanchuk. He was a disgrace and only won in the last rounds because his opponents didn’t know what they were playing for, due to the tournament situation. If you think Carlsen stumbled under the pressure then so did Kramnik. And big K has a lot of experience being under pressure for high stakes.

It will completely different in the WC match. The only thing that can stop Carlsen is falling into Anand's opening traps several times. But that’s hard to do since Carlsen deviates a lot more than Kramnik did.
Parent - - By Nelson Hernandez (Silver) [us] Date 2013-04-02 13:05
You're being harsh on Ivanchuk.  He's a one-off, a one man celebration of marching to a different drum.  Chess professionals do not need to fit into someone's idea of how they are supposed to play or behave (within the law, of course).  Nobody can say that he didn't give it his best, or that he faltered against the top two players.  I grant you he would make a strange world champion, but top-level chess needs more guys like him to keep things interesting and off balance.

I don't think Carlsen stumbled under pressure.  I think he was exhausted.  And yes, so was Kramnik.  But until the final round, who was more solid?  Kramnik.

I don't want to speculate on the WC.  I honestly don't know what is going to happen.  Normally you'd think the more brilliant player would prevail, or the one with more stamina.  But brilliancy comes in different flavors and stamina can be measured within a single game or a series of games.  Before this match I thought "if Carlsen wins the Candidates he'll clean up against Vishy".  Now I am not so sure.  I can almost picture Carlsen taking an early lead, holding it for several games, and then cracking.
Parent - - By Christian Packi (****) [de] Date 2013-04-02 13:18
I'm not picking on Ivanchuk because he's a weird guy. I don't care that he picks his nose all the time, that he twirls his eyebrows or that he's borderline autistic and socially awkward. But when he loses 5 times on time at move 30 that’s just distortion of competition.
Parent - - By Kappatoo (****) [de] Date 2013-04-02 14:06
I don't get your point. Do you think he does this on purpose? Ivanchuk is always let down by his nerves when much is at stake. And he might not a sufficient degree of self-reflection to get rid of this.
He is the person who suffers the most from this defect - he would probably have become world champion if he had the mental strength of Karpov or Kasparov. What is the point of blaming him for it?
Parent - - By Christian Packi (****) [de] Date 2013-04-02 14:17
I don't get your point. Does someone have to do things on purpose to act disgracefully? I'm saying he was unfit for the tournament and I think he didn’t even care how he performed. He lives in his own chess universe where results are less important than the truth of the position.

Time management can be trained. If you can't handle your time you're not worthy of playing in a candidates tournament for the chess crown.
Parent - - By Kappatoo (****) [de] Date 2013-04-02 14:24
Of course he cared. Otherwise, he wouldn't have lost on time that often.
Saying that Ivanchuk doesn't care about results just shows that you know nothing about him. I don't know any other player who is as devastated by losses.

This talk of him not being worthy and acting disgracefully doesn't make any sense to me. He played there because he qualified. He qualified because he is a fantastic chess player. He scored 6 out of 14 - how many people in the world would have managed that? And he beat both Carlsen and Kramnik.
Parent - - By Christian Packi (****) [de] Date 2013-04-02 14:32
Wow you really count the win against Kramnik when Kramnik was going all in to win with black? Well good for you then. Can't argue with the fanboys.

I'm not sure how many Super-GMs would've scored -2 in that tournament, a few come to mind. But I'm sure not a single one would've lost on time five times.
Parent - - By Kappatoo (****) [de] Date 2013-04-02 14:53
Fanboy? I hadn't thought I had given that away. Impressive job of looking through me.
So you propose that the win against Kramnik doesn't count? Sounds very reasonable. Generally speaking, only those games should count which support your case. Due to my limited understanding of chess, I had thought that Ivanchuk played excellently and was in command throughout the game.

> a few come to mind.


Aha.

> I'm sure not a single one would've lost on time five times.


And as we all know, this is the most important criterion by generally accepted standards. In the future, FIDE should pick only players who are guaranteed never to lose on time. How about you? I am sure you would score your 0/14 very gracefully, with plenty of time on your clock.
Parent - - By Christian Packi (****) [de] Date 2013-04-02 15:23
Now you're just being silly. I'm calling you fanboy to protect you, otherwise you're just stupid, feel free to choose.
Parent - - By Kappatoo (****) [de] Date 2013-04-02 15:26
I prefer the latter.
Nevertheless, I am not stupid enough to continue this pleasant conversation with you.
Parent - By Christian Packi (****) [de] Date 2013-04-02 15:33
You choose wisely.
Parent - By Christian Packi (****) [de] Date 2013-04-02 15:31

> How about you? I am sure you would score your 0/14 very gracefully, with plenty of time on your clock.


This is funny I just recalled a conversation I had with a child friend when I was about 10. I think I said something along the lines "That footballer isn't very good" and I got the response "Do it better". Even then I immediately thought "How does the fact that I'm not as good as someone at football imply that I don't know how good football looks like." And now I see this argument again, makes me chuckle. :grin:
Parent - - By Nelson Hernandez (Silver) [us] Date 2013-04-02 14:53
All of the games count.
Parent - - By Christian Packi (****) [de] Date 2013-04-02 15:18
If you just see the facts you see 1-0 for Ivanchuk. You can call that knowledge of what happened.

Or you know the whole situation of the tournament, you know Kramnik was desperate to win with black, thus was forced to play something different and more risky, then you can call that true knowledge of what happened. This game didn’t happen in a vacuum, it had context. I'm not sure why I even have to point this out, seems basic to me.
Parent - - By Nelson Hernandez (Silver) [us] Date 2013-04-02 17:44
All the games count, period.

Context?  Sure.  But there's context to every game played on the planet, isn't there?  Ultimately it's outcomes that matter.

You could make a good case that the tiebreak rules were ass-backwards.  I would have gone with (1) S-B, (2) direct results, (3) wins, (4) rapid games.  Instead it went 2, 3, 1, 4.  If I had made the tournament rules Kramnik would have won!  Carlsen's win was based on the misguided idea that players should be encouraged to play for victories.  That's overregulation of player behavior and a distortion of incentives IMO.
Parent - - By Christian Packi (****) [de] Date 2013-04-02 18:07
Kramnik would've been a worthy winner for sure.

But it’s not true what you're saying about context. Some games are different, it happens in all sports actually. These must win situations are very rare in chess though. If it was a normal tournament with price money only the last game would've been just a normal game and Kramnik wouldn’t have played the Pirc. I can only think of one other game from the top of my head that can be compared to this situation and that was the last game of the Kramnik-Leko match.

In other sports it happens much more often though. There was a poker tournament with a structure such that you only advanced if you had a certain amount of points. Gus Hansen needed to win the last round to advance so he went all in in the dark every hand. Also the situation on the bubble is very similar.

In general you could say that in situations where the difference in reward between winning and losing is exceptionally high people will take exceptionally great risks to win. This is also supported by game theory. But these situations are exceptions.
Parent - By Nelson Hernandez (Silver) [us] Date 2013-04-03 00:07
I don't disagree with anything you say except for the implication that comes with Kramnik wouldn't have played the Pirc.  Yes, you're right, he wouldn't have.  But he chose that particular opening for better or worse.  He decided on that opening before the game even started when the clock was not ticking and it was probably the consensus of his team.  He prepared for that opening.  But he miscalculated his chances and that miscalculation, whatever the context, rolls into the final outcome.  You can't disaggregate results from context in a chess tournament because players are always under some kind of pressure, whether it be ELO, money, their career situation, their wives, their sponsors, or in the Soviet era even their government.  Sure, the tournament just ended was very different from most because there was more at stake.  But it is only a matter of degree, really.
Parent - - By Kappatoo (****) [de] Date 2013-04-02 14:00

> This was a tournament like none he has ever played in before.


I agree with that. Nevertheless, he has played quite a number of important games in his career. Most of the time, his nerves have been good.

>... and you can draw some conclusions.


Sure. Still - it was just one tournament. And it is never rational to draw such far-reaching conclusions about a player from a single tournament. If he played ten such tournaments, do you think he would lose the last round every time? Assume that in ten comparable situations, he would win three, lose one and draw six. Then the first one might be the one in which he loses.
Even Kasparov collapsed a couple of times at crucial moments in his career. (By the way - I wouldn't say Carlsen collapsed. His main mistake was to use too much time - which is indeed often a sign of nervousness.)

> I don't know how you could make that case for Ivanchuk, for example.


Unlike Carlsen, he has quite a track-record in this respect.

Generally speaking, it puzzles me how people who otherwise know a great deal about statistics completely forget about this when it comes to judging humans.
Parent - By Nelson Hernandez (Silver) [us] Date 2013-04-02 14:52
This tournament was not just a sample of one.  This was IT.  The only route to a world championship, against the most formidable players in the world.  Maximum pressure.

My point is that this was a moment when someone's mettle is tested to the absolute max, and how they perform under those circumstances tells you more about their inner reserves than any number of other situations.  And since they come around so infrequently, you will never have a good sample size.  Indeed, the peculiar high-stakes, double-blind situation that existed in the final round of this tournament was probably unprecedented in the annals of world championship-level chess.  And what was revealed?  Even the very best are only human.
Parent - - By turbojuice1122 (Gold) [us] Date 2013-04-02 14:52

> (By the way - I wouldn't say Carlsen collapsed. His main mistake was to use too much time - which is indeed often a sign of nervousness.)


I have a slightly different, though similar, explanation here, and one quite different from Nelson's (with which I would normally agree if the tournament situation was a little bit different from how it actually was).  I don't think that it was nervousness--I believe that both Carlsen and, to some extent, Kramnik made judgment errors here in using too much time...because each wanted to see what was happening in the other game before making major decisions on how to try to direct his own game.  In so doing, each let his clock run too low without making any major commitments, with the result being that in the distractions and in the eventual time trouble, Carlsen turned a win into a loss and Kramnik turned a draw into a loss.  Their opponents, who had no such distractions (though Chucky was very short on time compared with Kramnik until the last few moves before the time control), were better focused on their games during the latter stages and were able to sweep up the full points.

Regarding one of your other points:

> [Ivanchuk] would probably have become world champion if he had the mental strength of Karpov or Kasparov


I definitely agree with this--indeed, I would go further in that I believe that if you take all of the top players on their best days, Ivanchuk would be stronger than all except for Carlsen (though I still do think that Carlsen would have top honors here).
Parent - By Kappatoo (****) [de] Date 2013-04-02 15:13
I'm not sure. Carlsen said that he didn't look at Kramnik's game too much. I don't know if this is true - it is probably hard to resist the temptation. But if it is, then this was the correct decision. After all, he had the tournament victory in his own hands.
Parent - By Nelson Hernandez (Silver) [us] Date 2013-04-03 00:21
Very nice article.  One can only marvel at Anand's civility and sportsmanship.  He is like a man from another age.  Purely as a human being he is my favorite chess player.
Parent - By Schachmatt (****) [us] Date 2013-04-03 07:21
excellent article!
Up Topic The Rybka Lounge / Chess / Why aren't all of the top 8 players in the candidates?
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