Imagine that we are in year 2040. Since year 2025 super strong +3400 elo engines have been widely available. Users have linked these engines in clusters and super-clusters and used these clusters to develop a huge public opening data base using a special software SuPerIDeA.
Around 2030 something unfortunate began to happen: No engine loose when playing white in "safe mode". More specifically, single engines stopped loosing when playing white in "solid setting" with access to a solid-for-white online one-million terabytes opening data base.
This solid-for-white database contains mainly critical lines and the lines often run beyond move 40. With an efficient branching factor of 3 (benefiting from transpositions and only considering critical lines ) the number of critical lines in the data-base is roughly 3^40 = 10^19 = 10^6 terabytes.
The "solid-for white" opening book is far from "solid" from a human perspective. In fact at any giving opportunity white choose sharp lines which often leads to huge complications that typically fizzles out after a 10-15 moves in a tough middle game battle. Many lines in the solid-for-white opening book are deliberately inferior since they lead to positions that are easy to hold for white.
In 2035 a special price was offered to ANY chess playing entity that with black can win a game against a single solid engine with access to the special database. By year 2040 not a single cluster or chess playing entity have been able to claim the prize.
We are now in year 2100. Major wars has miraculous been avoided! The computational power have increased and super computers are now using optics. The prize offered in year 2035 has still not been claimed. The internet clusters in year 2100 play with a staggering computing power of 10^9 of today's super-computers. Yet, none of these clusters have been able to beat a the solid "slow" year 2035 machine.
In year 2100 Computer chess is still thriving. However, computer chess with the ordinary rules starting from the usual standard position has been dead well before year 2050.
We are now in year 2150. Classical chess has long been for dead for computer chess, however no-one has dared even begin to prove that white can hold the initial position. So some mathematicians decide to use computers to PROVE that its impossible to win the 2035-prize (i.e. its impossible to beat the solid year 2035 engine with black). Lots of computer generated papers are published and researchers are able to use computers to identify roughly 10^10 different types special types of positions. The conjecture is that white can hold any of these special positions unless the year 2035 engine claims otherwise. As an example it is conjectured that white rook +f,g,h pawn against black rook +e,f,g,h pawns is a draw if no clear advantage is detectable by the year 2035 engine. So in 2150 this and 10^10 other similar conjectures can be proved to ensure that white holds chess (i.e. prove that white is not in zug-zwang in the initial position).
Theorem: (year 2150) If each of the 10^10 highly plausible conjectures about various general types of positions are correct, then White is not lost in the initial position.
We are now in year 2200. Many of the 10^10 conjectures had to be replaced by other more tractable ones. By a combination of ordinary mathematical proof techniques and some very deep strategy stealing arguments(*) (found by computer) it has been proved that White is not in zug-zwang and loose by force in the initial position. This has not solved chess, but it is a very important step in doing so.
We are now in year 2500. By use of much deeper analysis but essentially using the same methods as already discussed it is proved that black can hold the initial position. The new main idea is an introduction of machine generated generalized strategy stealing arguments that apply to various families chess positions. Thus chess is solved in the same way as checkers is solved today.
Theorem (year 2500): Classical Chess is a draw with perfect play
Of course even in year 2500 there will be many chess positions the computers fail to understand! These position are however not relevant for the proof. Phase 4 and phase 5 might of course never happen, but i see no reason why the automated theorem proves of the future could not implement phase 4 and 5 (possibly much sooner than I suggested).
(*) The concept of strategy stealing can be explained by an example. Consider the following version of chess:
Modified chess Played like ordinary chess, but with the following modifications:
a) The player who make the last move wins. If the last move is mate this agrees with the current chess rules. Draws are not possible since the person who make the last move forcing a draw, win the game according to the rules of modified chess.
b) White (the first player to move) can pass on the first move, but otherwise the game is played as ordinary chess.
Theorem: White has a winning strategy in modified chess
Proof: We use the following two facts:
1) Each actual game has a winner (i.e. draws are impossible)
2) The initial position is symmetric so the special pass rule allow the first player can "steal" any black strategy
It follows from 1) that either white or black has a winning strategy. If black had a winning strategy, while could pass on his first move and then "steal" blacks wining strategy (by pretending to be black). This would guarantee white a win which contradicts the assumption that black has a winning strategy. Thus we conclude that white have a winning strategy.
Notice that the strategy stealing argument says absolutely nothing about how white should play (e.g. pass, c4,d4,e4 etc.)."
In the direction that all easily believers (fanboys) still avoid the question of how the naive sheep must be protect against
the ravenous cloner wolves (Rybka, Houdini, Vitruvius) in the little realistic hope that one
day the wolves would discover the benefits of vegetarianism.
>It was hard for me to understand what you wrote sir.
Somebody long ago said:
"All truths are easy to understand once they are discovered; the point is to discover them.”
>It was hard for me to understand what you wrote sir. If you are American, perhaps you went to the Jimmy Huggins elementary.
> In the direction that all easily believers (fanboys) still avoid the question of how the naive sheep must be protect against
> the ravenous cloner wolves (Rybka, Houdini, Vitruvius) in the little realistic hope that one
> day the wolves would discover the benefits of vegetarianism.
(psst! hey!...don't try and get fancy in your exposition! you just end up falling all over yourself.
"naive sheep must be protect against the ravenous cloner wolves "
it ends up sounding like something out of, "Rocky and Bullwinkle"
Natasha, talking to Boris!)
>(psst! hey!...don't try and get fancy in your exposition! you just end up falling all over yourself.
>it ends up sounding like something out of, "Rocky and Bullwinkle"
>Natasha, talking to Boris!)
You're really funny, you amuse me... are you by any chance a member of the police department for wiseguys?
>... are you by any chance a member of the police department for wiseguys?
(psst! nice try at phrasing slick! But it's been done much better by Raymond Chandler!)
>psst! nice try at phrasing slick! But it's been done much better by Raymond Chandler!)
You assume too much, its from Pileggi's book "Wiseguy" See also the movie "Goodfellas"
Goodfellas is a 1990 film about the rise and fall of three gangsters, spanning three decades.
Directed by Martin Scorsese. Written by Nicholas Pileggi and Martin Scorsese, based on Pileggi's book, Wiseguy: Life in a Mafia Family.
Crime short stories
"Blackmailers Don't Shoot" (Black Mask, December 1933; Mallory)
"Smart-Aleck Kill" (Black Mask, July 1934; originally Mallory, changed to John Dalmas in Simple Art of Murder)
"Finger Man" (Black Mask, October 1934; unnamed originally, changed to Marlowe in Simple Art of Murder)
"Killer in the Rain" (Black Mask, January 1935; unnamed, but several characters from the John Dalmas stories appear)
"Nevada Gas" (Black Mask, June 1935; Johnny DeRuse)
"Spanish Blood" (Black Mask, November 1935; Sam Delaguerra)
"Guns at Cyrano's" (Black Mask, January 1936; Ted Malvern originally, changed to Ted Carmady in Simple Art of Murder)
"The Man Who Liked Dogs" (Black Mask, March 1936; Ted Carmady; cannibalized for Farewell My Lovely)
"Noon Street Nemesis" (Detective Fiction Weekly, May 1936; Pete Anglich; title changed to "Pick Up on Noon Street" for publication in Simple Art of Murder)
"Goldfish" (Black Mask, June 1936; Ted Carmady originally, changed to Marlowe in Simple Art of Murder)
"The Curtain" (Black Mask, September 1936; Ted Carmady; cannibalized for The Big Sleep and the opening of The Long Goodbye)
"Try the Girl" (Black Mask, January 1937; Ted Carmady; cannibalized for Farewell, My Lovely)
"Mandarin's Jade" (Dime Detective, 1937; John Dalmas; cannibalized for Farewell, My Lovely)
"Red Wind" (Dime Detective, January 1938; John Dalmas originally, changed to Marlowe in Simple Art of Murder)
"The King in Yellow" (Dime Detective, March 1938; Steve Grayce)
"Bay City Blues" (Dime Detective, June 1938; John Dalmas, cannibalized for The Lady in the Lake, The High Window, and The Little Sister)
"The Lady in the Lake" (Dime Detective, January 1939; John Dalmas, cannibalized for The Lady in the Lake and The High Window)
"Pearls Are a Nuisance" (Dime Detective, April 1939; Walter Gage)
"Trouble is My Business" (Dime Detective, August 1939; John Dalmas originally, changed to Marlowe in Simple Art of Murder)
"I'll Be Waiting" (Saturday Evening Post, October 14, 1939; Tony Reseck)
"No Crime in the Mountains" (Detective Story, September 1941; John Evans, cannibalized for The Lady in the Lake)
"Marlowe Takes on the Syndicate" (London Daily Mail, April 6–10, 1959; published posthumously; first published in the United States as "The Wrong Pigeon" in Manhunt (February 1960; also appeared as "The Pencil", Argosy, September 1965; and "Philip Marlowe's Last Case", Ellery Queen's Mystery Magazine, January 1962)
Non-crime/fantasy short stories
"The Bronze Door" (Unknown, November 1939)
"Professor Bingo's Snuff" (Park East, June, July, & August 1951; also appeared in Go, June, July, & August 1951; no priority established)
"English Summer" (Antaeus, Autumn1976; published posthumously)
"The Bronze Door" and "Professor Bingo's Snuff" feature unnatural deaths and detectives (Scotland Yard and local California police, respectively), but the emphasis is not on the investigation.
"The Simple Art of Murder" (Atlantic Monthly, December 1944)
"Writers in Hollywood" (Atlantic, November 1945)
"Critical Notes" (Screen, July 1947)
"Oscar Night in Hollywood" (Atlantic, March 1948)
"10 Greatest Crimes of the Century" (Cosmopolitan, October 1948)
"The Simple Art of Murder" (Saturday Review of Literature, April 15, 1950; this is not a reprint of the 1944 Atlantic article, but rather an assessment of his early pulp stories; this article, somewhat rewritten, served as the introduction to the collection The Simple Art of Murder.
"Ten Percent of Your Life" (Atlantic, February 1952)
"The Detective Story as an Art Form" (The Crime Writer, Spring 1959)
"Farewell, My Hollywood" (Antaeus, Spring/Summer 1976)
5 Murderers (Avon Book Co., 1944).
Five Sinister Characters (Avon Book Co., 1945).
Red Wind (World Publishing Co., 1946).
Spanish Blood (World Publishing Co., 1946).
The Finger Man (Avon Book Co., 1947).
The Simple Art of Murder (Houghton Mifflin Co., 1950); contains all of Chandler's crime stories that were not cannibalized for his novels except for Blackmailers Don't Shoot.
Killer in the Rain (Hamish Hamilton (UK), 1964); contains all of Chandler's crime stories that were cannibalized for his novels.
The Midnight (Houghton Mifflin Co., 1971) ISBN 0-395-12712-2; Introduction by Joan Kahn, contains Raymond Chandler Introduces The Simple Art of Murder, Red Wind, Trouble Is My Business, Blackmailers Don't Shoot, The Pencil, The Little Sister, and The Long Goodbye.
Stories & Early Novels: Pulp Stories, The Big Sleep, Farewell, My Lovely, The High Window (Frank MacShane, ed.) (Library of America, 1995) ISBN 978-1-88301107-9.
Later Novels & Other Writings: The Lady in the Lake, The Little Sister, The Long Goodbye, Playback, Double Indemnity, Selected Essays & Letters (Frank MacShane, ed.) (Library of America, 1995) ISBN 978-1-88301108-6.
Collected Stories (Everyman's Library, Knopf, 2002); the first single volume collection of all of Chandler's shor
Pileggi, Nicholas. Casino: Love and Honor in Las Vegas ()
Powered by mwForum 2.27.4 © 1999-2012 Markus Wichitill