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Up Topic Rybka Support & Discussion / Rybka Discussion / New Fritz Interface for Rybka 4?
- - By herakleitos (***) Date 2009-07-15 16:52
Will the Fritz interface for Rybka 4 be the same as that for version 3, or will it be modified to handle new Rybka 4 capabilities?

Thanks.
Parent - - By tano-urayoan (****) Date 2009-07-16 01:55
Which are Rybka 4 new capabilities?
Parent - - By Vasik Rajlich (Silver) Date 2009-07-16 04:44
The details are TBD but most likely there will be some new features (or at least the previous features will be cleaned up). This time the features will be the same for all interfaces.

Vas
Parent - - By Felix Kling (Gold) Date 2009-07-16 10:59
btw., did you release a description of the Rybka 3 UCI extensions? At least for Rybka 4 I hope you do so, since I'm no big fan of closed extensions, a "semi open" specification is not good for the users (ok, at least it's better than a completely closed protocol like the Fritz one). At least with some delay other GUIs should be able to support Rybka just as Aquarium and Fritz do.
Parent - By Vasik Rajlich (Silver) Date 2009-07-17 04:43
I haven't made a formal document yet - I'll clean all of this up for Rybka 4.

Vas
Parent - - By herakleitos (***) Date 2009-07-18 00:28 Edited 2009-07-18 00:30
Sounds like the v4 release is a ways off, if the interface decisions haven't been made. Then we're expecting you to bring out a major version during football season ...
Parent - - By Vasik Rajlich (Silver) Date 2009-07-18 06:29
For the Redskins that will run into Feb '10. :)

Vas
Parent - - By Banned for Life (Gold) Date 2009-07-18 07:28
Its actually more likely their season will be over in late September! :-D
Parent - - By Vasik Rajlich (Silver) Date 2009-07-19 07:21
Mark my words - their defense will be the best in the league.

Vas
Parent - - By Banned for Life (Gold) Date 2009-07-19 07:33
The important thing is whether they cover the point spread or not! :-D
Parent - - By Vasik Rajlich (Silver) Date 2009-07-19 07:43
For the first few weeks, yes. By October, the oddsmakers will be onto them.

Vas
Parent - - By Banned for Life (Gold) Date 2009-07-19 07:54
The important thing for the house is to set the odds so that 50% of the money gets bet on each team. This guarantees a risk free return of 5% a week.
Parent - - By Vasik Rajlich (Silver) Date 2009-07-20 06:18
Until a few years ago, the houses operated exclusively like this, as far as I know. Nowadays, though, the oddsmakers will often effectively place bets if they think that they are right.

For example, in last year's first round of the NFL playoffs, the bookies set the Cardinals as a 1.5-point underdog against the Falcons in the first round, which caused something like 75% of the bets be placed on the Falcons. The line could have been raised of course, but the houses preferred to take a position. This is pretty rare, but it does happen every now and then.

I am not sure how the different bookies end up colluding - maybe the big guys set the line and the little guys have no choice but to follow.

BTW, I have never placed an official sports bet - I just follow these things as a fan. It's a lot more enlightening to look at posted odds than to read journalist analysis. People seem to magically get smarter when their own money is involved - either that or smart people are attracted to situations where their own money is involved.

Vas
Parent - - By Banned for Life (Gold) Date 2009-07-20 13:19
Nowadays, though, the oddsmakers will often effectively place bets if they think that they are right.

I doubt this very much because even if an oddsmaker was right most of the time, people will always focus on the losses, and this would eventually cost him his job. When you run a casino, nobody really takes notice when you get the expected payback or even more, but when you lose money, people want to know why. Gary Loveman wrote an interesting article about this a number of years ago after his firm bought the Rio and lost money on its premier client business (he didn't realize that his Chinese clients who were playing on credit would insist on renegotiating their losses after they returned home). He survived, but nobody wants to go through the experience of having to explain why money was lost in what should have been a sure thing.

People seem to magically get smarter when their own money is involved - either that or smart people are attracted to situations where their own money is involved.

Some have proposed a more nefarious rational for smart money.
Parent - - By Vasik Rajlich (Silver) Date 2009-07-21 04:52
Here is an example where the oddsmakers took a position:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601079&sid=aHPURLOz8itc&refer=home

You could argue that it was unintentional, but my impression is that over the past few years they are going more and more in this direction.

It's true that in many businesses, bosses refuse to put up with any screwups at all - as they shouldn't. This won't work very well for an oddsmaker, though. I think these guys have dealt with these types of issues and developed the needed statistical models for everything, including bankrolls & risk, etc. It's really hard to find cases where they behave irrationally.

Vas
Parent - - By Banned for Life (Gold) Date 2009-07-21 07:06
My take on the Patriots and the Giants is that they overestimated peoples willingness to bet on the Patriots or underestimated peoples willingness to bet on the Giants, or both. This would be confirmed by the line becoming friendly to the Patriots before the game (I don't remember if that actually happened). In most casino operations, you really want predictability with the only variable being the amount bet (casinos are frequently so heavily leveraged that any deviation below expectations can lead to severe fiscal problems). A guy who has no clue as to who is going to win, but knows the public perception well enough to come up with the right line to achieve balance, and with the the ability to track sentiment to maintain this balance is really the great bookmaker.
Parent - - By Vasik Rajlich (Silver) Date 2009-07-22 05:19
For huge items like the super bowl, the oddsmakers will be relatively conservative. The Patriots/Giants betting pattern was only around 60/40, and for the Super Bowl this is just about the upper bound. For smaller items where the risk can be diversified away, the oddsmakes will be more principled.

Look for example at tomorrow's baseball games:

http://www.pregame.com/EN/main/sports-betting-stats/sportsbook-spy-insights/

About half the games have at least a 75:25 betting discrepancy, with tens of thousands of bets on each.

The public has some betting biases and it's perfectly logical for the books to exploit this when the risk can be managed. For example, the public tends to overvalue the hot team (like the Giants) and undervalue the longer-term body of work (like the Patriots had that season - they actually slumped into the Super Bowl, as funny as that sounds).

Vas
Parent - - By Banned for Life (Gold) Date 2009-07-22 07:37
Let's look at a realistic example. Suppose the Cowboys are playing against the Redskins and the a priori "truth" is that Dallas should be favored by 7 points, but the public would require a 10-point spread to get equal money on both teams. Lets see what happens in each case:

Case 1: oddsmaker puts the line at 10 points (the same money on each team point)- Result: Washington has a better chance to beat the spread, but the house always makes a 5% return with no risk.
Case 2: oddsmaker puts the line at 7 points (the same probability of win for each team point) - Result - More than 50% of the money is bet on Dallas but each team has an equal chance to beat the spread. If Dallas wins, the house loses money because of the greater percentage betting Dallas (this occurs half the time by definition). If Washington wins, the house makes money because of the greater percentage of people betting Dallas, (and this also occurs half the time). The house expectation is still a 5% return, but with risk.

The expectation for the house in these two cases is exactly the same. All that has happened is that the Beta has increased in Case 2, which is undesirable.

Now between these two points, more people will bet on Dallas and Washington will beat the spread more often, so there is the opportunity to make additional money, but the upside is limited and is accompanied by a higher beta. Worth the risk? As an investor, I'm very skeptical because this requires knowledge of the two points above.
Parent - - By Vasik Rajlich (Silver) Date 2009-07-23 05:09
Yes, that's right. Spreads between 7 and 10 will win against the public, spreads of exactly 7 and 10 will break even, and spreads below 7 and above 10 will lose - not counting house cut of course.

> Worth the risk? As an investor, I'm very skeptical because this requires knowledge of the two points above.


You only need a better guess than the public. When you are less sure, you can take a safer stance (in your example, maybe a 9.5 point spread).

I am more or less certain that the oddsmakers are doing this. The public betting patterns are too unbalanced on too many events for it to be an accident. It also seems to me that ~10 years ago, the oddsmakers did this less frequently. Maybe they are more confident now in their simulations or better-equipped to handle the risk & bankroll issues.

Vas
Parent - By 8lrr8 (***) Date 2009-07-23 13:20
u are correct, alan is wrong.

lvsc runs a computer prog and it generates a line.  due to certain betting tendencies by the public, vegas will shade certain lines.  they know the public's betting tenancies better than the public knows themselves.  having said that, they have to be careful not to open themselves up to sharps who will severely punish any mistakes and will bet against the public.  it's complicated, but the short answer is for most games they're gonna lock in a profit, and in other games they're gonna take a position hoping to ensure a huge profit due to their superior knowledge.  Some call it a "trap" game, but in reality it's just vegas doing their job.
Parent - - By tomgdrums (****) Date 2009-07-19 19:20
I hate to throw a bug into this but my Philadelphia Eagles may yet get past the NFC title game this year!!  Although they will of course go 5-5 as they always do and then win their last 6 games to make it to the playoffs.  That is how Andy Reid and Donovan roll!  :)
Parent - - By keoki010 (Silver) Date 2009-07-19 21:31
Don't leave the Saints out!  :cool:
Parent - - By Vasik Rajlich (Silver) Date 2009-07-20 06:19
I just want to see the Eagles in a lot of close games, so that we can see Andy Reid manage the 2-minute drills. That's always fun. :)

Vas
Parent - - By herakleitos (***) Date 2009-07-20 15:21
That Super Bowl sucked big time. I thought I was watching the Raiders ...
Parent - By Vasik Rajlich (Silver) Date 2009-07-21 04:54
I am lucky enough to see 3 or 4 Eagles games per year and this happens more or less every game.

My favorite so far: the last two minutes of the first half of the Eagles-Vikings playoff game last year. It was a clinic! Childress was trained well. :)

Vas
Parent - - By tomgdrums (****) Date 2009-07-20 18:16

> I just want to see the Eagles in a lot of close games, so that we can see Andy Reid manage the 2-minute drills. That's always fun.
>
> Vas


Yeah Andy Reid is not the best "gameday" coach!  He is so busy mumbling plays into his scorecard that he forgets there is a game going on.  He also has seems to really be against giving the ball to Westbrook!  Except against Dallas. :)
Parent - - By Vasik Rajlich (Silver) Date 2009-07-21 04:55
Actually, I'm surprised Westbrook is still productive at his age, he takes a beating. In my view the Redskins overuse Portis.

Vas
Parent - - By tomgdrums (****) Date 2009-07-22 14:58

> Actually, I'm surprised Westbrook is still productive at his age, he takes a beating. In my view the Redskins overuse Portis.
>
> Vas


Yeah that is another problem with Andy Reid, as GM he has been reluctant to get a good pounding running back so that Westbrook doesn't have to be what he is not:  the bruiser type running back.

I am not sure what game it was last year (I may have blocked it from my mind), but the Eagles needed 1 yard to win the game and Andy Reid called the same play 3 times in a row:  Westbrook up the middle.  (I think it was against the Giants)

Running up the middle for a bruising 1 yard is NOT what the Eagles or Westbrook do, yet Reid was determined to prove his play call was the correct choice!

Reid is a good coach but not the guy I want coaching a team  that needs to win one game to save the universe! (or a playoff spot)  (that coach would probably be Joe Paterno in his prime!!)

Parent - - By Vasik Rajlich (Silver) Date 2009-07-23 05:14

> Reid is a good coach but not the guy I want coaching a team  that needs to win one game to save the universe!


True. He's an excellent overall coach - he builds the team well, makes good long-term decisions about players, they always play hard, etc.

There are always several coaches who just don't have any grasp of the 2-minute situations. Maybe they should hire someone to help with this.

As far as the best strategists: from the current generation, you have to go with Belichick. Dungy was also really good (and underappreciated) here, the Colts always got those situations just right.

Vas
Parent - - By tomgdrums (****) Date 2009-08-14 17:45
SO!  The Eagles sign Vick!?!?  I can't say that I am all that happy about it on many levels.....

Andy Reid is excited to run the "wildcat" with Vick.  Yeah...maybe Andy Reid should get excited about drawing up a play that can gain a yard on 4th and 1 first!!
  
It seems odd to me that the Eagles would take a chance on Vick (who was not a good quarterback for the west coast offense with the Falcons) and yet they refuse to get a bruising running back.  And they also refuse to keep around great leaders and players like Brian Dawkins

What do you think of the signing Vas?  I am surprised Daniel Snyder didn't try and get Vick!
Parent - By Vasik Rajlich (Silver) Date 2009-08-16 13:45
The Vick situation was dominated by the off-the-field stuff, obviously.

From purely a football point of view, it's clearly a nice pickup. For a very low price, Philly gets an excellent backup QB, plus someone who can contribute in the wildcat or maybe even with something like returning punts.

Vas
Parent - - By Banned for Life (Gold) Date 2009-07-20 13:20
OK, but keep your paper bag ready, just in case! :-D
Parent - By keoki010 (Silver) Date 2009-07-20 13:32

>OK, but keep your paper bag ready, just in case


That's part of the game equipment! :yell:
Up Topic Rybka Support & Discussion / Rybka Discussion / New Fritz Interface for Rybka 4?

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