Not logged inRybka Chess Community Forum
Up Topic Rybka Support & Discussion / Rybka Discussion / The next 100 years
- - By Silvian (***) [ro] Date 2008-03-04 08:04 Edited 2008-03-04 08:47
Hello !

Be sure the chess knowledges added today into a chess engine are minimalistic.I analysed a lot of games of Naum 3 ( and not only )- not even a move to avoid the weak pawns center, a bad play knight vs. bishop, no profilaxis.......& so on. I strongly suspect that a fast search function is more convenient today for most of programmers.To add new chess knowledges into a chess engine is not a simple matter.........and ........with new chess knowledges the search becomes slowly, the horizon of search not so profoundly. Take a look please to KN/s & deepth of two engines with an amount of chess knowledges above medium : Hiarcs & Zappa Mexico.
We are now far away from the perfect chess .To build up-today- a chess engine including the whole chess theory and a very fast search function simple isn't possible.The tree is
maimed by various pruning functions by the shrine of the same search goddess and a lot of interesting continuations are premature killed. To build up the 32 men TBS also  isn't possible today for a lot of reasons ( computing,hoarding......).And if the 32 men TBS will exist a day we need not a chess engine but a super search soft.

So, lovers of chess, be quiet for the next 100 years.The chess remains like a mystery & our toys engines will exist !

Regards,
Silvian
Parent - - By diskamyl (**) [tr] Date 2008-03-04 14:47
I bet Rybka would beat anand in a 20 days per move correspondence match. how about that.
Parent - By Harvey Williamson (*****) Date 2008-03-04 15:14 Edited 2008-03-04 15:19
I suspect this would be much tougher than any over the board match. Rybka or any engine left on infinite analysis while a Super GM or any strong correspondence player is free to consult databases, books and move the pieces around as they want....

A similar game is taking place here v a strong CC player who is not using an engine. The engine he is playing is restricted to a maximum 1 hour search. http://hiarcs.net/forums/viewtopic.php?t=1009
Parent - - By h1a8 (***) [us] Date 2008-03-04 15:14
This is impossible as Anand would be using Rybka in his analysis.
Parent - - By lkaufman (*****) Date 2008-03-04 15:33
The implied premise of the question is that Anand would promise not to consult any engines, and would keep his word. 
Parent - By onursurme (***) [tr] Date 2008-06-25 22:13
We can imprison him, can't we ?
:)
Parent - - By vermillion (**) [ca] Date 2008-06-26 17:08
I would like to ask LK this question---we have heard so much about chess knowledge and evaluation used by humans in playing chess and is now being implemented in chess engines;  are there any "non-human" chess knowledge and evaluation (ie. not used by humans) that you have discovered and implemented in Rybka?

I am thinking that maybe one could invent "non-human" evaluation to exploit some areas of human evaluation which could be inaccurate.
Parent - By lkaufman (*****) Date 2008-06-26 18:34
     This is a hard question to answer. Everything in Rybka's eval makes some kind of sense from a human's perspective, but the level of detail is far beyond anything a human could even try to do. For example, everyone knows that you should not push the "g" and "h" pawns past the third rank when you have castled short unless there is a good reason, but who thinks about which one is worse to advance and by how much, as Rybka does? Or who thinks about what squares in front of a passed pawn are controlled by which side when deciding whether to give up the bishop pair to create a passed pawn, just to make up one example? Rybka does. The amount of information Rybka considers in evaluating every position is really astonishing by human standards. I think my own chess has benefited from working on Rybka's eval; my own USCF rating is at a five year high now despite by age (60). But I can't say that there is any one thing in the eval that I find astonishing. 
Parent - By sharpnova (***) [us] Date 2008-06-25 10:32
I imagine Anand would win handily spending only a few hours on each move. Engines are definitely not correspondence players yet.

They're somewhere in between OTB and correspondence players. (a little closer to the OTB atm)

In the off chance that 7-man tablebases contribute substantially more than 6-man did and some pretty optimistic iterations of moore's law, we might have something that can do the job in 5-10 years. (i assume at this point the centaur relationship would shift up a medium and the engine would beat the centaur OTB, but lose to the centaur in correspondence (and beat the correspondence WC (unaided by an engine) ) )
Parent - - By Uri Blass (*****) [il] Date 2008-03-04 19:45
I think that it is the opposite.
The fact that top programs are so strong without some knowledge that humans have prove that knowledge is relatively not important in chess.

I do not expect chess to be solved mathematically in the next 20 years but a situation when almost every game between programs is drawn is clearly a possibility that I expect in the next 20 years.

Uri
Parent - - By saxon (**) [hr] Date 2008-03-04 21:57
Make it 200.That would be much  better estimate :)
Parent - By onursurme (***) [tr] Date 2008-06-25 23:02
When I was 10 years old, I heard about functions, and I thought that there must be a function which solves chess positions when you put all variables about the places of the material on the board. And I enjoyed the feeling "Wow, how hard it is to find that function !"

Then I thought that "explaining chess mathematically" is not worth the effort :)
Parent - - By diskamyl (**) [tr] Date 2008-03-05 06:46 Edited 2008-03-05 06:56
"The fact that top programs are so strong without some knowledge that humans have prove that knowledge is relatively not important in chess."

I certainly agree. Maybe, instead of accusing chess programs with having no understanding of positional play, humans should consider the fact that there could be some serious inaccuracies in the literature of strategical evaluation.

I'm certainly no expert on chess, but I'm beginning to think this is really the case. Probably humans have really underestimated the tactical complexity and tactical resourcefullness of chess a little bit too much. This could be why Tal (and probably even Topalov) (from the attacking side) and Petrosian (from the defending side) has reached so much success and has become so popular. I was always considering Petrosian as a positional and defensive player, and was surprised when Kramnik said his style was, on the contrary, very tactical; it was just that he saw more tactical defensive resources than any other player could. He was probably right.

If we take another step on this argument, probably a very risky one, this could be actually the reason why chess programs are not "positionally good," and why it is so difficult to implement knowledge in them: maybe they just reject it, like a body would reject new organs.

Larry Kaufmann had stated that when he tried to teach Rybka about Pawn Islands, he said the results got worse and he couldn't find a way to teach it without this being so. He then said that either Rybka "already had" this information in the compound of other knowledge she has, or that some of the assumptions about pawn islands may be simply wrong. I think these comments are of great importance. humans really got to step back and watch these "alien-like style" of super engines more closely.
Parent - - By Uly (Gold) [mx] Date 2008-03-05 07:11

> Maybe, instead of accusing chess programs with having no understanding of positional play, humans should consider the fact that there could be some serious inaccuracies in the literature of strategical evaluation.


I agree. A human can have a strategy that covers the next 20 halfmoves and looks very human, while the engine can have a strategy that covers the next 21 halfmoves, and is better, but looks strange and counterintuitive. So the engine programmer may want to teach the human strategy to the engine because he doesn't understand the computer strategy, and this would only have worse results.

But this problem will persist because humans can't think like computers. A new question arises when you consider that we want strong engines to analyze our games, but if we want to follow the computer strategy that we don't understand, making the engine's move is only going to hurt our game. A weaker move is better than a strong one, if we can understand the former.
Parent - - By Silvian (***) [ro] Date 2008-03-05 07:57 Edited 2008-03-05 08:07
"A human can have a strategy that covers the next 20 halfmoves and looks very human, while the engine can have a strategy that covers the next 21 halfmoves, and is better, but looks strange and counterintuitive. " (Vytron)

Not strange,not counterintuitive.In chess a single halfmove make the difference ( you must attack - for example - a position with a forced mate in 5, but you see correct only 4 moves . The continuation ? ). The top engines can see deeply in the chess tree branches -who are in fog for the top chess players ( and not only 1 halfmove ) -despite the fact that sometimes they select not the best branch because the lack of knowledges.
To have a perfect chess evaluation function ( hard but not impossible )make possible a perfect chess at the horizon accessile by the search function of each generation of chess engines. The catastrophic problem is that a massive evaluation function  retard the search . If possible a perfect evaluation function + a very fast search ( the challenge for future ) it will be near the perfect chess .That's all !

All the best,
Silvian
Parent - - By Uri Blass (*****) [il] Date 2008-03-05 09:05
If you have perfect evaluation you do not need search.
You simply choose the best move based on evaluation.

Perfect evaluation simply tell you if a move is mate for one side and how many moves and also give score that is not mate for drawing moves.

Different evaluation is simply not perfect so it is practically impossible to have perfect evaluation.

Uri
Parent - - By Silvian (***) [ro] Date 2008-03-05 09:37 Edited 2008-03-05 09:44
"If you have perfect evaluation you do not need search.
You simply choose the best move based on evaluation."

Nope ! A perfect evaluation give us a perfect evaluation of a position according the chess theory. But if in tree they are a lot of near equal promising continuations ? Even the 32 men TBS will exist we need a SEARCH engine ( not a chess one ) to find the best continuation among an awe-inspiring numbers.  The search make the horizon of a chess engine.
Regards,
Silvian
Parent - - By Uri Blass (*****) [il] Date 2008-03-05 13:18
You assume that there is a theory that give perfect evaluation.

This is not correct.

There is no book that tell us how to give a score correctly to chess positions and humans do not know what is the optimal evaluation.
There are a lot of positional factors and people do not know what is the optimal score to give them.

The problem is not only about speed and you are not going to get perfect evaluation that you cannot improve by changing the formula even if you assume that speed is not a limitation and finding if a change is improvement or the opposite is an hard task espacially with complex evaluation.

If you have 100,000 numbers that you can change and if you need one year to get the optimal value of one of them then you may need 100,000 years to get the optimal value of all of them.

The practical problem is clearly harder because possible changes is not only changing weights and you may have a local maximum(situation when changing single number make the program worse but changing more than one single number make the program better).

Uri
Parent - By Silvian (***) [ro] Date 2008-03-05 14:33 Edited 2008-03-05 14:37
"You assume that there is a theory that give perfect evaluation.

This is not correct.
.....
The practical problem is clearly harder because possible changes is not only changing weights and you may have a local maximum(situation when changing single number make the program worse but changing more than one single number make the program better). "

Here you are right ! But it isn't an insoluble problem.

Silvian
Parent - By onursurme (***) [tr] Date 2008-06-25 22:52
When we have 32men TBs, it will look like this kind :

e4 win in x moves
d4 draw in y moves
a3 loss in z moves
a4 loss ....
b3 loss ....
.....
So we won't need a search. When we have it, you'll see that I'm right :)
Parent - By onursurme (***) [tr] Date 2008-06-25 22:44
I think that by saying "perfect evaluation function", Silvian infact means “ the best evaluation function being in use just before we discover the real perfect evaluation function, which Uri described “.

(Uri, please check your pm box.)
Parent - By Kapaun (****) [de] Date 2008-06-25 11:11
I agree. A human can have a strategy that covers the next 20 halfmoves and looks very human, while the engine can have a strategy that covers the next 21 halfmoves, and is better, but looks strange and counterintuitive.

Yes. The same is valid with openings, by the way.
Parent - By Nelson Hernandez (Silver) [us] Date 2008-03-05 12:49
"Probably humans have really underestimated the tactical complexity and tactical resourcefullness of chess a little bit too much."

I resoundingly agree with this, as well as the rest of your comments.  The simple proof is how counterintuitive certain long endgame combinations can be.  If this is true for a board with six pieces on it, imagine how bewildering a 20 or 25-man EGTB would be.  There can be little doubt that there are countless won positions that require playing one move exclusively that appears to our feeble sensibilities to be a ridiculous and unaesthetic move. 
Parent - - By Vasik Rajlich (Silver) [hu] Date 2008-03-08 16:09
These are really excellent points.

Humans in general love jumping to conclusions and then holding them against (or with) all evidence. Apparently psychologists even have a test where they show patients random blots. Healthy patients will find (non-existent) patterns, while mentally ill patients will see the random blots for what they really are.

On a related topic, I've had a lot of fun watching people guess various things about Rybka. Let's just say that there are a lot of mentally healthy people in computer chess :)

Vas
Parent - Date 2008-03-08 17:28
Parent - By onursurme (***) [tr] Date 2008-06-25 23:13
I think parameters about Pawn Islands will work, but not in the way LK tried.
It only needs more work.
Please don't forget the benefits of more chess knowledge put in Rybka.

You can be right that evolution of chess knowledge used in engines will be in an unexpected way.
After we finish implementing all classical chess knowledge in engines, unusual parameters benefiting will start to be found.

If we separate "what we know in chess" and "what we guess in chess", after a century long chess culture, we will see that the only real thing that we know about chess is tablebases. This is horrible :)
Parent - By Silvian (***) [ro] Date 2008-03-05 07:04
"The fact that top programs are so strong without some knowledge that humans have prove that knowledge is relatively not important in chess." (Uri Blass )

No, this fact prove only the inequality:

a strong search+ weak knowledges > a weak search + strong knowledges

Regards,
Silvian
Parent - - By Silvian (***) [ro] Date 2008-03-05 07:13
"I do not expect chess to be solved mathematically in the next 20 years but a situation when almost every game between programs is drawn is clearly a possibility that I expect in the next 20 years." ( Uri Blass )

The great number of drawns between the top chess engines prove only near the same strength in search , near the same chess knowledges and -please understand me in a correct way -near the same architecture.Nothing more !

Regards,
Silvian
Parent - By Roland Rösler (****) [de] Date 2008-03-05 08:18
Exactly! When you play in 40 years against not-loosing-programms 20 years ago, you will be astonished.
Parent - - By JhorAVi (***) [ph] Date 2008-03-05 08:33

> "I do not expect chess to be solved mathematically in the next 20 years but a situation when almost every game between programs is drawn is clearly a possibility that I expect in the next 20 years." ( Uri Blass )
>


Or i interpret it this way:  In the next 20 years all engines will be too strong that they will all end as draw regardles of the difference in hardware used.

My point is that even the slowest engine will find the very strong move that is enough to draw against perfect play.
Parent - - By Uri Blass (*****) [il] Date 2008-03-05 09:00
I do not expect all games but only more than 90% of the games to be drawn.
This process is already started in the 400/40 games of CEGT

Naum3 got draws in 80% of the games against Rybka.

Of course Rybka3 is probably going to be better but I expect Naum3 still to get at least 50% draws against Rybka3 at 400/40 time control and probably we are going to see better naum that is going to get more than 80% again against rybka3.

Uri
Parent - - By Uly (Gold) [mx] Date 2008-03-05 10:30

> Of course Rybka3 is probably going to be better but I expect Naum3 still to get at least 50% draws against Rybka3 at 400/40 time control


Maybe Rybka will need to change her playing style to enter positions that other engines have trouble understanding so she uses her strength more intelligently and avoids draws (I.E. entering positions that are very hard to draw for either side, knowing that it's an advantage to her.)
Parent - By Nelson Hernandez (Silver) [us] Date 2008-03-05 12:56
Or maybe the engines need to try a different opening book.  Nonetheless, Uri is basically correct, and I think he's underestimating how long his scenario will take to materialize.  Just ten years from now we may be playing around with 64-core engines routinely, running at faster clock speeds than we have now.  Software will have improved bit by bit over that time.  Combined, playing strength could well be 3500 or more.  Engines playing at that level will almost surely tend to draw a very high percentage of the time.
Parent - By irvstein1 (***) [us] Date 2008-06-25 12:16
well if what you say is true then if hardware speeds get faster and faster . most engine games will be draw even at the faster time limits .i know hardware speeds must improve alot for that to happen but its headed that direction . im sure a 5 min speed game today was maybe like a game in 6 hours in say 1985 with dedicated chess computers . maybe similar skill level of the games .another way to look at it is . if some one show you a series of games played by computers like mephisto vs fidelity of vintage 1985 that was played at 5 sec a move .1 just by going over the games could you tell they were speed chess ? how about rybka vs hydra 5 min a game ,would you be able to tell it was speed chess ? i think its more dependant on hardware now that programs are strong .i think 10 or 15 years computer chess games will be draw between top 10 programs on fast hardware that the average person could buy .
Parent - - By Cubeman (**) [nz] Date 2008-03-05 09:08
Has anyone looked at the trend of the endgame databases from 3 to 4 and 4 to 5 and 5 to 6 to see what percentage of positions are won for the side to move.I would expect the the higher you go then the proportion of wins starts to drop.And you start to see very limited number of won positions and these have a more limited moves that actually win.
Parent - By Silvian (***) [ro] Date 2008-03-05 10:09
"Has anyone looked at the trend of the endgame databases from 3 to 4 and 4 to 5 and 5 to 6 to see what percentage of positions are won for the side to move."

This trend shows nothing because in 7,8,9...........32 men TBS we have a lot of nodal points !

Regards,
Silvian
Parent - - By billyraybar (***) [us] Date 2008-06-25 13:03
Uri,

Maybe it means that knowledge is very important to human players and not as important to computer engines.
Parent - By onursurme (***) [tr] Date 2008-06-25 23:27
Knowledge is a way to compansate inadequate search depth.
Search depth will never be enough.
So the knowledge will always be important for engines.
As the search depths increase, the knowledge will help less against weaker opponents.
But against stronger opponents, which can calculate very deep, knowledge will keep its importance.

Knowledge has an effect like "the engine calculates n moves deeper" than without knowledge. ( n depends of the quality of knowledge)
If the extra time caused by adding knowledge is less then the time needed to calculate n moves deeper, it is better to use that knowledge.
This is what happened in the tests used for R3s "more knowledge or more depth" desicion.

Result : importance is a relative thing :)
Parent - - By Patricio (***) [ar] Date 2008-06-26 04:36 Edited 2008-06-26 04:39
This topic is more than interesting…

I’ll like to try another approach, suppose that we had infinite computer processing power, and with a very simplistic search method (very low HUMAN chess knowledge) we could find all paths from the start to the end of the game. So we could find a colossal tree of moves with all the possible moves that reach the end of the game. As all of you usually say, to solve chess. If we had access to that tree of moves it would be very indifferent to have HUMAN chess knowledge. This is simply because there would be only 3 groups of paths 1) To Win, 2) To Draw 3) To Lose. And of course everybody would try to choose any path from group 1 while it is possible. I say while it is possible, because if blacks select group 1 too, in such moment of the game the only paths possible to be selected would belong to group 2. And the game would be a draw.

But coming back to the real world… There is no such tree of all chess moves, so humans need to find a method or technique that let them avoiding unnecessary analysis of moves. And that  is the moment where HUMAN chess knowledge or (HUMAN) chess theory comes up, as method to help their creators (humans) to find the best path in the unavailable tree of all chess moves.

The point here (and nothing new) is that chess theory (strategic and tactical) is nothing more than an invention (a model) from humans that is not simple to be verified. It took a lot of years to prove that some classical chess ideas were not correct, indeed, some of the Nimzowitch’s hypermodern ideas had some evolution during the last years (take a look to some comments and chapter from “Secrets of Modern Chess Strategy” by Watson).

Chess theory is nothing more (nothing LESS) than a tool created by humans to help them play better chess BETWEEN HUMANS, a tool which its real value added is very difficult to be proved (which of course does not mean that it can not be proved). So how could we be sure that all the existent HUMAN chess theory is correct? Is it possible? The only concrete way to prove it would be to  know the tree of all chess moves and verify that using that theory (the one that we want to verify) lets find a path belonging to group 1 (or 2) with the addition that it have to be the shortest of all possible paths.

So… besides very basic and chess mathematical principles who can say that the “others” (block, prophylaxis, overprotection, etc) HUMAN chess principles are correct?

So...How could we be sure that is necessary to add HUMAN chess Knowledge to COMPUTER chess engines?

Best regards,

                             Patricio.
Parent - - By Silvian (***) [ro] Date 2008-06-26 07:52 Edited 2008-06-26 07:55
Hi Patricio !

"So...How could we be sure that is necessary to add HUMAN chess Knowledge to COMPUTER chess engines? "

Simple !

1.The men mastering a great amount of (human ) chess knowledges (masters,IMs,GMs ) perform better against chess engines;
2.the chess is a logic game and the human chess knowledges were estabished in a logic way serving the chess rules;
3. the search function-itself-is based on chess knowledges.When searching we (& chess engines-of course ) must to have always some principles.Two engines having exact the same search horizont are differentiated by the (human ) chess knowledges added.
4.Von Neuman architecture of our computers is a masterpiece of human knowledges....
5.We can see in 3,4,5,6 men TBS the correctness of human chess knowledges.
6.many more.

Regards,
Silvian
Parent - - By Patricio (***) [ar] Date 2008-06-26 11:43
Not sure...

Let me correct one thing,

So...How could we be sure that is necessary to add all theoretically working existent HUMAN chess Knowledge to COMPUTER chess engines?

"1.The men mastering a great amount of (human ) chess knowledges (masters,IMs,GMs ) perform better against chess engines;"

Is it still true to say that? If now a days the best human chess player of the world would play a match without odds at (we cay say) 4 hours or 6 hours time controls with one of the best chess engines of the world (Rybka, Zappa, Naum, Shredder...) which be using a modest opening book and 5 men tb... Will the human perform better? I'm really not sure about that.

INMHO now a days any 2700 elo chess engine perform better than a human, but we must see it from an open perspective, I mean considering overall results,  I'm not sure we can judge a chess engine which wins 90% (or more) of the games against a human to be worse than the human because the engine does not apply some HUMAN chess principles or even more because the chess engine does not understand yet some specific positions.

"2.the chess is a logic game and the human chess knowledges were estabished in a logic way serving the chess rules;"
It could be ok, but...

"3. the search function-itself-is based on chess knowledges.When searching we (& chess engines-of course ) must to have always some principles.Two engines having exact the same search horizont are differentiated by the (human ) chess knowledges added."
I agree, but the point here (and the base of this thread) is how much human chess knowledge is currently included in chess engines. We are saying that now a days the human chess knowledge implemented in chess engines is not so big, and the fact is that without "all" that knowledge chess engines are (at least starting) to perform better against humans.

"4.Von Neuman architecture of our computers is a masterpiece of human knowledges....
5.We can see in 3,4,5,6 men TBS the correctness of human chess knowledges.
"
Could be ok, but I'm not sure they let to prove something practically.

Best Regards,

                             Patricio.
Parent - By Silvian (***) [ro] Date 2008-06-26 13:30
Hi !

"........and the fact is that without "all" that knowledge chess engines are (at least starting) to perform better against humans. "

Of course YES !

In chess a single halfmove make the difference . The chess engines can see deeply in the chess tree branches -who are in fog for a (top ) human chess player -despite the fact that sometimes the branch selected by engine isn't the best- because the lack of knowledges.

But in  equal search horizons the chess knowledge becomes essential.Here is the problem: how to add new chess knowledges without any loss in search horizon.

All the best,
Silvian
Parent - By onursurme (***) [tr] Date 2008-06-26 09:12
Human-originated Chess Knowledge will be in use whenever it works.
And nowadays, it works :)
Up Topic Rybka Support & Discussion / Rybka Discussion / The next 100 years

Powered by mwForum 2.27.4 © 1999-2012 Markus Wichitill