Poll
When Will Carlsen Reach Or Surpass 2851 ELO? (Closed)
| 1.This Year | 13 | 57% | |
| 2.Next Year | 5 | 22% | |
| 3.Within Two Years | 1 | 4% | |
| 4.Within 5 Years | 1 | 4% | |
| 5.Never | 3 | 13% |
Will Carlsen reach or surpass Kasparov's 2851 ELO rating?Looking at the ratings it seems they are inflated theses days so that should help Carlsen to reach the record also.As of 1/16/12 these are the LIVE ratings of the top 5.Carlsen is currently playing in the Tata Steel Tour and a good result would push him farther towards that Mystical 2851.
1.Carlsen 2838
2.Aronian 2817.4
3.Kramnik 2801
4.Anand 2799!
5.Radjabov 2771
1.Carlsen 2838
2.Aronian 2817.4
3.Kramnik 2801
4.Anand 2799!
5.Radjabov 2771
2851 is not "mystical". Rating inflation will ensure that a number of players will pass 2851. In 2000 the average rating of the top 100 players was 2644: it had passed 2700 by the end of last year, and there was a 400% increase in the number of 2700+ players in an eleven year period. If that rate of increase continues then there will be more than 160 players rated over 2700 by 2021.
Rating inflation (as demonstrated by Sonas and others) started in about 1985. In January that year Kasparov was rated 2715 and Karpov 2705 - 55 points ahead of number 3! In 2012 World Champion Karpov's 2705 would earn only 39th place in the FIDE rankings. Several years ago Shaw calculated that rating inflation had added 118 points to FIDE ratings between 1986-2006.
http://members.shaw.ca/redwards1/
The net result is that passing 2851 will in itself be meaningless.
Rating inflation (as demonstrated by Sonas and others) started in about 1985. In January that year Kasparov was rated 2715 and Karpov 2705 - 55 points ahead of number 3! In 2012 World Champion Karpov's 2705 would earn only 39th place in the FIDE rankings. Several years ago Shaw calculated that rating inflation had added 118 points to FIDE ratings between 1986-2006.
http://members.shaw.ca/redwards1/
The net result is that passing 2851 will in itself be meaningless.
I was just thinking about rating inflation when I was reading up around the "mystical 2851" remark. Carlsen would need to reach 2885 as of the latest rating list to achieve the kind of separation from the pack Kasparov enjoyed. re: 80 points higher than the #2 seed Anand back in July of '99. So this *mystical 2851* is now *mystical 2885* I bet within the next 8 years someone, Carlsen? Will break 2900+ Carlsen is very good but he needs to mature or study more book-wise. Another 5 years and he will be in his chess prime. And I wish him the best of luck. He is due for a world championship lineup. He's got the right chips he just needs to cash them in.
This is interesting for $2600/ a head, of up to 4 players per gathering, you get to play in a standard tournament and be wine and dined by none other than Magnus himself.
http://1000passions.com/en/entertainment-culture/listexpdetails/Play_Chess_With_Grandmaster_Magnus_Carlsen
Nelson?
http://1000passions.com/en/entertainment-culture/listexpdetails/Play_Chess_With_Grandmaster_Magnus_Carlsen
Nelson?
I'd pay at least that for a date with Tatiana Kosintseva
Would you beat her? (At chess)
har har =)
I'd love to play her but odds are she'd slaughter me :-)
Maybe if the stakes were high like she'd be my love slave for a day if I won (of course what terrible stakes would be inflicted upon me should I lose?) then I could prepare endlessly and just for one game play at a strength well above my own and somehow manage to win :-) I am such a dreamer :-P
I'd love to play her but odds are she'd slaughter me :-)
Maybe if the stakes were high like she'd be my love slave for a day if I won (of course what terrible stakes would be inflicted upon me should I lose?) then I could prepare endlessly and just for one game play at a strength well above my own and somehow manage to win :-) I am such a dreamer :-P
Maybe you can change to "Will Aronian reach or surpass Kasparov's 2851 rating?" :)
Seems that he is now very close to Carlsen.
Seems that he is now very close to Carlsen.
Aronian is interesting in that he was not exceptional as a junior, and in that he has progressed in spurts punctuating periods of stability. In his last appearance in the junior list at the age of 20 in October 2002, Aronian was only the eleventh ranked junior with a rating of 2581. He progressed steadily to 2752 by January 2006 but then stood still, for his rating was only 2750 three years later in January 2009 in spite of rating inflation. There came a sudden spurt to 2786 in November that year (when he was 27 years old), but then he again stood still and was 2783 by September the following year. Since then he has again been on an upward trajectory.
Kramnik was asked last year which players would dominate as the leading older players (Kramnik, Anand and Topalov) left the stage. Kramnik replied that he thought Carlsen and Aronian would be the two players fighting for first place in the years ahead.
Kramnik was asked last year which players would dominate as the leading older players (Kramnik, Anand and Topalov) left the stage. Kramnik replied that he thought Carlsen and Aronian would be the two players fighting for first place in the years ahead.
> Aronian is interesting in that he was not exceptional as a junior
Well it depends how you define "exceptional". Since 2000 till 2002 he was a top 20 junior. And there were some prodigies in that lists like Ponomariov, Radjabov, Bacrot, Grischuk, Bu,Vallejo. Some of them had briefly the record for youngest players to achieve a GM title.
Anyway what is more exceptional than being World Junior Champion which Aronian won in 2002?
He also won the u-12 World Championship ahead of Bacrot, Ponmariov, Grischuk and Vallejo.
I know it shouldn't matter really, but Aronian was the legendary "Wunjin" on the icc. Like one of the first players to just dominate online blitz.
In an interview he said he considers himself a "cheap tactician" :-P
In an interview he said he considers himself a "cheap tactician" :-P
Being in the junior top 20 hardly merits "exceptional". In October 1982 Aronian was the oldest junior in the list but had a rating of a mere 2581 compared to the 2743 and 2702 of the younger players Ponomariov and Grischuk. More importantly Aronian was ranked below Bu, Alekseev and Naiditsch, who were all only 17 years old to Aronian's 20, and three years is a great deal at that age! And those three are goodish players but a very long way short of being super-GMs. The point is that was a relatively mediocre performance and one would not have predicted that Aronian would rise to No.2 in the world.
As for being Junior World Champion in the same year (2002), that is a joke. The best players have (invariably) long since opted out of that tournament. Aronian was the oldest player present and the strength of the opposition can be judged by the players (all younger than Aronian) immediately below him at the end: Ganguly, Timofeev, McShane, Bu and the 16-year old Harikrishna. Of those only Bu was even ranked in the top 20 juniors. Among the many top juniors not present were Ponomariov, Radjabov, Grischuk. Bacrot, Bruzon and Vallejo Pons.
You claim that winning the world junior championship is "exceptional". Well, take a look at the names of some of the winners in the past 20 years:
2008 Gupta
2007 Adly
2006 Andriasian
2004 Harikrishna
2001 Acs
1999 Galkin
1998 Sadvasakov
1997 Shaked
1996 Sutovsky
1995 Slobodjan
1994 Grétarsson
1993 Miladinović
1992 Zarnicki
Do you really believe all these were exceptional players with exceptional achievements? Come off it. How many of those have eventually reached even the top 40 in the world? When Adly was winning the junior championship in 2007 the leading juniors were all (as usual) conspicuous by their absence. They included Carlsen, Radjabov, Karjakin, Nakamura, Vachier-Lagrave, Nepomniatchi, Tomashevsky, Wang Yue, Vitiugov, Wojtaszek and Caruana. Had they played then you might have been entitled to declare Adly's victory to be something approaching "exceptional". Adly is now aged 24 and has still to reach a 2600 rating.
As for Aronian winning the U-12 championship ahead of Grischuk, Bacrot and Ponomariov it should be noted that he was older than they were - and age is even more important at that stage than in the late teens. Which players of the same age as himself did he beat?
As for being Junior World Champion in the same year (2002), that is a joke. The best players have (invariably) long since opted out of that tournament. Aronian was the oldest player present and the strength of the opposition can be judged by the players (all younger than Aronian) immediately below him at the end: Ganguly, Timofeev, McShane, Bu and the 16-year old Harikrishna. Of those only Bu was even ranked in the top 20 juniors. Among the many top juniors not present were Ponomariov, Radjabov, Grischuk. Bacrot, Bruzon and Vallejo Pons.
You claim that winning the world junior championship is "exceptional". Well, take a look at the names of some of the winners in the past 20 years:
2008 Gupta
2007 Adly
2006 Andriasian
2004 Harikrishna
2001 Acs
1999 Galkin
1998 Sadvasakov
1997 Shaked
1996 Sutovsky
1995 Slobodjan
1994 Grétarsson
1993 Miladinović
1992 Zarnicki
Do you really believe all these were exceptional players with exceptional achievements? Come off it. How many of those have eventually reached even the top 40 in the world? When Adly was winning the junior championship in 2007 the leading juniors were all (as usual) conspicuous by their absence. They included Carlsen, Radjabov, Karjakin, Nakamura, Vachier-Lagrave, Nepomniatchi, Tomashevsky, Wang Yue, Vitiugov, Wojtaszek and Caruana. Had they played then you might have been entitled to declare Adly's victory to be something approaching "exceptional". Adly is now aged 24 and has still to reach a 2600 rating.
As for Aronian winning the U-12 championship ahead of Grischuk, Bacrot and Ponomariov it should be noted that he was older than they were - and age is even more important at that stage than in the late teens. Which players of the same age as himself did he beat?
Why didn't the top juniors play in 2007?
Aronian studied the others did not so much...end of story.
Carlsen has won the 7th Tal Memorial 2012 and has lost one point according to the "LIVE" Ratings.Here are the standings as of 6-24-12:
I see +2.1 in your table.
He is comparing with an old live rating.
The Following should keep up to date if this forum works like mine.
+1
Carlsen will be playing in the London Chess Classic from Dec 1-Dec 10th,2012
The participants are:Magnus Carlsen, Levon Aronian, Vishy Anand, Vladimir Kramnik, Hikaru Nakamura, Judit Polgar, Mickey Adams, Luke McShane and Gawain Jones
Carlsen is now rated at 2848.Will Carlsen surpass Kasparov's record of 2851 this Tour?I believe he will.
The participants are:Magnus Carlsen, Levon Aronian, Vishy Anand, Vladimir Kramnik, Hikaru Nakamura, Judit Polgar, Mickey Adams, Luke McShane and Gawain Jones
Carlsen is now rated at 2848.Will Carlsen surpass Kasparov's record of 2851 this Tour?I believe he will.
Just by 0.2
after McShane faltered in round 1
after McShane faltered in round 1
I wonder how on this top level you can get a worse position with white after only 5-10 moves. 5. ... e5! wasn’t exactly a new move, played in Kramnik-Grischuk 2011, where Kramnik lost a pawn quickly but could hold. Makes me believe n2 in the world doesn’t check new lines with engines. 
[Event "4th London Chess Classic"]
[Site "London ENG"]
[Date "2012.12.01"]
[Round "1.3"]
[White "Aronian, Levon"]
[Black "Nakamura, Hikaru"]
[Result "0-1"]
[ECO "A30"]
[EventDate "2012.12.01"]
[Opening "English"]
[Variation "symmetrical variation"]
1.c4 c5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 cxd4 4.Nxd4 Nf6 5.g3 e5 6.Nb5 Bb4+ 7.Bd2 a6 8.N5c3 d5 9.cxd5 Nxd5 10.Bg2 Be6 11.O-O Nb6 12.Be3 Nc4 13.Qc1 O-O 14.Rd1 Qc7 15.a3 Nxe3 16.Qxe3 Ba5 17.Nd2 Bb6 18.Qf3 Rad8 19.Na4 Ba7 20.Qc3 Rd4 21.Qc2 f5 22.e3 Rdd8 23.b4 e4 24.Nb3 Qf7 25.Nbc5 Bd5 26.Rd2 b6 27.Rxd5 Rxd5 28.Nxa6 Ne5 29.Rd1 Rfd8 30.Rxd5 Qxd5 31.Nb2 Qd2 32.Qc7 Ng4 0-1

[Event "4th London Chess Classic"]
[Site "London ENG"]
[Date "2012.12.01"]
[Round "1.3"]
[White "Aronian, Levon"]
[Black "Nakamura, Hikaru"]
[Result "0-1"]
[ECO "A30"]
[EventDate "2012.12.01"]
[Opening "English"]
[Variation "symmetrical variation"]
1.c4 c5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 cxd4 4.Nxd4 Nf6 5.g3 e5 6.Nb5 Bb4+ 7.Bd2 a6 8.N5c3 d5 9.cxd5 Nxd5 10.Bg2 Be6 11.O-O Nb6 12.Be3 Nc4 13.Qc1 O-O 14.Rd1 Qc7 15.a3 Nxe3 16.Qxe3 Ba5 17.Nd2 Bb6 18.Qf3 Rad8 19.Na4 Ba7 20.Qc3 Rd4 21.Qc2 f5 22.e3 Rdd8 23.b4 e4 24.Nb3 Qf7 25.Nbc5 Bd5 26.Rd2 b6 27.Rxd5 Rxd5 28.Nxa6 Ne5 29.Rd1 Rfd8 30.Rxd5 Qxd5 31.Nb2 Qd2 32.Qc7 Ng4 0-1
Powered by mwForum 2.27.4 © 1999-2012 Markus Wichitill